"2023 is the year I'll be more present and hang on a sec"
Reading
Existing estimates of the macroeconomic effects of Australian monetary policy tend to be based on strong, potentially contentious, assumptions. I estimate these effects under weaker assumptions. Specifically, I estimate a structural vector autoregression identified using a variety of sign restrictions, including restrictions on impulse responses to a monetary policy shock, the monetary policy reaction function, and the relationship between the monetary policy shock and a proxy for this shock. I use an approach to Bayesian inference that accounts for the problem of posterior sensitivity to the choice of prior that arises in this setting, which turns out to be important. Some sets of identifying restrictions are not particularly informative about the effects of monetary policy. However, combining the restrictions allows us to draw some useful inferences. There is robust evidence that an increase in the cash rate lowers output and consumer prices at horizons beyond a year or so. The results are consistent with the macroeconomic effects of a 100 basis point increase in the cash rate lying towards the upper end of the range of existing estimates.
Can you believe this is necessary? That the House Republicans are feared to be such lawless monsters that they would endanger the lives of people who testified truthfully is outrageous — if it weren’t so predictable: The leaders of the House January 6 select committee investigation have asked the White House to help shield the identities of key witnesses who gave evidence regarding White House officials’ fears that President Trump’s desire to walk to the Capitol with a riotous mob of his supporters indicated his intention to mount a coup against the government he led at the time. In a letter to Richard Sauber, a White House attorney who serves as special counsel to President Joe Biden, Representatives Bennie Thompson and Liz Cheney — the panel’s chair and vice-chair — noted that the committee had reached agreement with the White House Counsel’s Office to obtain testimony from certain White House personnel on the condition that the identities of any such witnesses would remain secret.
Evidence has surfaced that regional banks have been manipulating customers to justify branch closures. read now...
Newtie’s spawn take the wheel and he doesn’t like it Did he think that when he enabled the extreme right wing, playing to their basest instincts, that it would never blow back on him? Has he ever read the Bible? Shakespeare? History? Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich attacked Republicans who are opposing Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s, R-Calif., bid for speaker Monday. Gingrich launched the salvo against McCarthy’s opponents during a Monday appearance on Fox & Friends, saying the vote threatens to throw the GOP into “chaos.” He argued that the small group of hard line lawmakers don’t have the “moral right” to oppose the will of the overwhelming majority of Republicans who do support McCarthy for speaker. “I don’t understand what they’re doing. They’re not voting against Kevin McCarthy, they’re voting against over 215 members of their own conference. Their conference voted overwhelmingly, 85%, for McCarthy to be speaker, so this is a fight between a handful of people and the entire rest of the conference,” Gingrich said.
Only the best people … After a mob stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a top aide to Ivanka Trump and presidential adviser Hope Hicks fumed about tweets posted by supermodel Karlie Kloss, the wife of Jared Kushner’s brother. That’s according to text messages released by the House’s Jan. 6 committee—which also reveal the aide, Julie Radford, and Hicks were worried that the insurrection would destroy their reputations. After the riot, Kloss took to Twitter to write: “Accepting the results of a legitimate democratic election is patriotic. Refusing to do so and inciting violence is anti-American.” She also responded to a Twitter user who encouraged her to “tell your sister-in-law and brother-[in]-law” by replying, “I’ve tried.” The newly released texts show that Hicks flagged the Kloss tweets for Radford, who responded, “Unreal. She just called me about it.” Hicks then texted back: “I am so done” and added, “Does she get how royally fucked they all are now?” Hicks and Radford also fretted that they would face fallout from the deadly Capitol riots.
"I'm totally relaxed about, it"
Tesla driver found sleeping at the wheel as car reached 70 mph on highway, report says (Thanks to EricY)
New Year’s Eve fireworks cancelled because of masturbating walrus (Thanks to Ralph and Emily, Leslie and w)
Man arrested in Stafford County after 'unprovoked attack' on Santa Claus inflatable (Thanks to wiredog, who says "Santa had it coming.")
Media outlets no longer consider government malfeasance newsworthy if reporting on it might offend audiences’ partisan loyalties.
from Lars Syll • Mind the assumptions — assess uncertainty and sensitivity. • Mind the hubris — complexity can be the enemy of relevance. • Mind the framing — match purpose and context. • Mind the consequences — quantification may backfire. • Mind the unknowns — acknowledge ignorance. Andrea Saltelli, John Kay, Deborah Mayo, Philip […]
On this week’s Lever Time: David speaks with a leading expert in airline history and regulation; and discusses the shadowy power wielded by our country’s largest law firms.
Imagine that Politico provides us with some data about mail in and early voting that proves Donald Trump is a total fool: If there was any doubt Donald Trump’s vilification of early voting is only hurting the GOP, new receipts from the midterm elections show it. Election data from a trio of states that dramatically expanded the ability to cast ballots before Election Day, either early or by mail, demonstrate that the voting methods that were decidedly uncontroversial before Trump do not clearly help either party. Lawmakers of both parties made it easier to vote by expanding availability of mail and early voting in a politically mixed group of states: Vermont, Kentucky and Nevada. The states had divergent results but shared a few key things in common. Making it easier to vote early or by mail did not lead to voter fraud, nor did it seem to advantage Republicans or Democrats. In Kentucky, Republicans held on to five of the state’s six congressional districts and a Senate seat. Both Vermont and Nevada saw split-ticket voters decide statewide races, by a gaping margin in Vermont and a narrow one in Nevada.
Despite Donald Trump facing a slew of legal problems, there is still a slight chance of the former President posing a threat to American democracy. read now...It is actually hard to eat "enough" vegetables when eating out too often, for reasons I'm not sure I fully understand, but if you cook at all it really isn't hard!
4 strategies for eating more vegetables: Start by not overthinking itI suppose I'm blessed with not being at all picky (I like nice food but I can eat whatever), but my secret to eating vegetables is I like them.
"The pandemic is over." No, it's very not.
The Australian Liberal party has responded to polling showing that they are not popular with the youth of Australia by announcing a new initiative, the Dutton Youth. ”We understand that the youth of Australia are not connecting with us and... Read More ›