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Created
Tue, 23/12/2025 - 15:30
Forecasting period-average exchange rates requires using high-frequency data to efficiently construct forecasts and to test the accuracy of these forecasts against the traditional random walk hypothesis. To achieve this, we construct the first real-time dataset of daily effective exchange rates for all available countries, both nominal and real. The real-time vintages account for the typical delay in the publication of trade weights and inflation. Our findings indicate that forecasts constructed with daily data can significantly improve accuracy, up to 40 per cent compared to using monthly averages. We also find that unlike bilateral exchange rates, daily effective exchange rates exhibit properties distinct from random walk processes. When applying efficient estimation and testing methods made possible for the first time by the daily data, we find new evidence of real-time predictability for effective exchange rates in up to fifty per cent of countries.
Created
Tue, 23/12/2025 - 00:54
Statens betalningar skapar de medel som sedan används av privata aktörer för att betala skatter och köpa statspapper. Staten är självfinansierad i sin egen valuta – staten är ju ensam utgivare och kan därför omöjligen låna samma pengar som bara den kan skapa.

Staten är således finansiellt obegränsad i sin egen valuta och kan alltid operativt […]
Created
Mon, 22/12/2025 - 06:16
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 21, 2025 by Tony Wikrent   Strategic Political Economy The $79 Trillion Heist Harold Meyerson, December 03, 2025 [The American Prospect] …As Emma Janssen has reported in these pages, marketers are going where the money is, like bank robber Willie Sutton. First-class and business-seat travel on the airlines is […]
Created
Mon, 22/12/2025 - 01:37

Al premiar con su premio de la paz a la figura favorita de Trump de la oposición venezolana, la conspiradora golpista y proguerra María Corina Machado, el Comité Nobel desobedeció los principios entronizados en sus documentos fundacionales, así como la ley sueca, alega Julian Assange en un escrito legal explosivo revisado por The Grayzone. El gobierno sueco violó sus propias leyes al concederle el Premio Nobel de la Paz a María Corina Machado, según un escrito legal explosivo introducido por […]

The post Julian Assange: Suecia violó sus propias leyes al darle el Nobel de la Paz a María Corina Machado first appeared on The Grayzone.

The post Julian Assange: Suecia violó sus propias leyes al darle el Nobel de la Paz a María Corina Machado appeared first on The Grayzone.