H.P. Lovecraft’s verse advances a startlingly modern metaphysic.
Reading
Pun intended Younger voters might save us after all. CNN caught GenZ Rep. Max Frost (D-FL) Tuesday morning and he, like other younger party electeds, is standing behind Joe Biden: Frost said that he had discussions with young voters, during which he said he heard concerns about Project 2025 — a playbook from the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation for a potential Trump presidency — not about Biden’s age. Former President Donald Trump has sought to distance himself from Project 2025, claiming he doesn’t know anything about it. Frost added that he plans to head to New Hampshire this weekend to continue engaging with young voters. Frost said he is convinced Biden will secure a second term this November and help Democrats regain control of the House. Why, I don’t know, but electeds like Frost, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other members of The Squad seem not just cooler than some of the old party hands, but have kept cooler heads during the public freakout over Biden’s awful June 27 debate. The Congressional Black Caucus remains committed to Biden. Others who have asked Biden to step aside are accepting that he will not.
When our great-grandfather Seb Ancestor built Ancestor Fields Farm 140 years ago, he was guided by a vision of earth-borne food harvested and passed along to the consumer as naturally as possible. His original dream began with fresh grains and produce handpicked by one of his four wives, straight from Seb’s family to yours.
Six generations later, as Ancestor Fields has grown over the years, we’re happy to say we’re still operating from Seb’s original vision of good food for good people, with only a few changes.
For instance, instead of running on the sweat and blood of Seb’s original four wives, our farm is now worked by eighteen different pairs of hands,1 also belonging to some wives, not all of whom are married to the same man. That’s right, our grains are now harvested by the wives of a small assortment of husbands, as opposed to just one.
As public satisfaction with the NHS and social care is at an all time low, David OIiver examines exactly what the health service needs to get back on its feet
"Disgust at the callous indifference to the decades of suffering of the Palestinians by both main political parties led to the grassroots movement called The Muslim Vote"
The Darth Vader brigade, which is made up of civilians including a teacher and IT workers, operates as an important first line of defence to keep Ukraine’s capital safe from Iranian-made Shaheds
Starmer could relaunch the European Political Community with a defence group of France, Germany, Poland and the UK, to strengthen the European pillar of NATO, and pitch the UK as a strategic partner to the EU
- by Aeon Video
- by Elissa Strauss
FRASER is a trove of historical documents, so you may need a map to find your ‘prize.’ The collection’s experienced librarians can help with your search.
The 'Popular Conservatism' Conference exposed a party firmly stuck in conspiracy-driven denial about why it just suffered the worst electoral defeat in its history
The bombing of a children's hospital in Kyiv was an act of Desperation. The act of one losing ground. This sounds more like NATO than Russia right now. Here’s why I believe it was more likely an own goal by Ukraine and NATO, rather than Russia. Continue reading »
Miruna-Daniela Ivan, Joshua Lillis, Eduardo Maqui and Carlos Cañon Salazar Funding markets are crucial for healthy and active financial institutions, and consequently for everyone in the economy. The repurchase agreement (repo) market plays a key role in bank and non-bank financial institutions’ (NBFIs’) daily activities by facilitating short-term financing and risk hedging. In this post, we … Continue reading ‘No one length fits all’ – haircuts in the repo market
Private equity firms are buying up asbestos liability claims — and asbestos victims will pay the price.
It’s Wednesday, which means a few (sometimes unrelated) items are discussed or analysed. Today, we see that real wages in 16 of the 35 OECD countries are still below the pre-pandemic levels, which tells us among other things that the inflationary pressures were not wage induced. Further, a speech yesterday by the Federal Reserve boss…
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July 10th, 2024: Happy Wednesday! Or perhaps the leisure society, or the choice society. As Mark Pontin pointed out, manufacturing is increasingly automated, with one Chinese factory reducing workers by 90%. This is the future and not just in manufacturing. Whenever you point this out, people panic, scared of the jobs going away, but that’s ridiculous. If we can produce more with less workers that should be a good thing, not a bad one. The problem is our insistence on distributing the good, or at least acceptable life thru jobs, a holdover from pre-Industrial revolution times, when every worker was often needed.
What is happening now? The onset of the COVID-19 crisis highlighted the importance of having timely data on the
economy to help policymakers make more informed decisions. However, the most comprehensive measure of activity,
GDP, is published with a long lag, thereby limiting its value to policymakers as a measure of the current state of
the economy. To overcome this information deficiency, we develop a monthly activity indicator (MAI) for Australia.
The MAI aims to provide policymakers with a more immediate snapshot of prevailing economic conditions. We achieve
this by using a dynamic factor model to summarise the information content from a curated list of 30 monthly
predictors selected for their ability to explain movements in quarterly real GDP growth. We undertake a pseudo
out-of-sample nowcasting exercise using the MAI in an unrestricted MIDAS model and find that nowcasts based on the
MAI significantly outperform standard benchmarks. Crucially, outperformance is largest during the COVID-19 crisis,
emphasising the benefit from considering monthly data.
Dear ES/PE community members, find below an abundant and excellent list of great academic opportunities: 14 calls for papers for conferences (some are partly funded) and special issues, 11 postdoc positions, 9 PhD scholarships and fellowships, 4 job openings, 3 summer schools, and a visiting fellowship in economic sociology, political economy, work and labor studies, […]
As we all watch with bated breath for Joe Biden to verbally stumble I thought I’d just take a moment to remind ourselves of the kinds of stuff that other guys says. Here’s one from a couple of months ago: “Our nation was saved by the immortal heroes at Gettysburg. Gettysburg, what an unbelievable battle that was. The battle of Gettysburg, what an unbelievable. I mean it was so, was so much, and so interesting, and so vicious and horrible, and so beautiful in so many different ways — it represented such a big portion of the success of this country. Gettysburg, wow! I go to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, to look and to watch. And uh the statement of Robert E. Lee, who’s no longer in favor — did you ever notice that? He’s no longer in favor. ‘Never fight uphill, me boys, never fight uphill.’ They were fighting uphill, he said. Wow, that was a big mistake, he lost his great general and uh they were fighting uphill. ‘Never fight uphill, me boys,’ but it was too late.” Trump goes on a weird rant about the battle of Gettysburg and then notes of Robert E Lee that "he's no longer in favor.
Is that good? Hardly. Is it catastrophic? Not really. That’s from 538. G. Elliott Morris, who runs the place, has this: It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 481 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 516 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives. It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators.
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