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Lots of reports coming out that an attack is imminent.

Israel is caught in a bind. The constant attacks on settlements and military targets in the north of Israel from Hezbollah in Lebanon have forced settlers to leave. There’s are at least a quarter million internal Israeli refugees, and they can’t return until Hezbollah stops firing. The ongoing war, the problems with trade, the refugees and so on are causing massive budget and economic problems.

Hezbollah won’t stop firing until Israel leaves Gaza, stops bombing it and stops the blockade.

Israel, or rather Netanyahu, needs a win in Gaza or his political career is over.

Hamas won’t give up the hostages until there is a permanent peace and all Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza, but the Israeli project is to occupy at least part of Gaza permanently.

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

It’s always 1987 in Trump’s world A big new economic plan on the way: Former president Donald Trump is weighing options for a major new economic attack on China if reelected, considering plans that are widely viewed as likely to spark a global trade war. Publicly, the GOP front-runner has endorsed downgrading China’s trade status with the United States — a move that would lead tariffs between the world’s two largest economies to skyrocket. Revoking China’s status as a “most favored nation” for trade — which is applied to almost all countries the United States trades with — could lead to federal tariffs on Chinese imports of more than 40 percent, according to one analysis. Trump has floated imposing a 10 percent tariff on nearly all $3 trillion in annual imports from all countries, including China. Privately, Trump has discussed with advisers the possibility of imposing a flat 60 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, according to three people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to relay private conversations. All these options would lead to enormous disruptions to the U.S.

And that’s all that matters to the cult Dahlia Litwick with a fascinating observation about the Trump trials and the effect they are having in the political culture: Tacopina’s mistake in representing Trump’s interests in that first defamation suit lay in trying to win the case in the eyes of the law, which meant keeping Trump far away from the jurors. Trump has corrected for that by retaining Habba, who understands that whether Trump wins or loses matters less than ensuring that he feels like a winner, whatever the verdict. And what is winning if not getting to do the thing you were instructed, under penalty of sanctions, not to do? Habba knows that the outcome of these trials (how much money he has to pay) doesn’t matter nearly as much as establishing that Trump is as immune to law, judges, gag orders, and threats of sanctions as he is immune to reality, fact, science, and election results. She is the stage mother who comes to all his ballet recitals and T-ball games and tells him he’s a star and that everyone else is doping. And if a little lawyering happens on the side, well, that’s a solid day’s work.

She’s a terrible lawyer and a terrible actress And she’s just as nuts as he is: Following a massive verdict where a New York federal jury ordered Donald Trump to pay over $83 million in damages to E. Jean Carroll for making defamatory statements about her, Trump’s attorney, Alina Habba, exited the courtroom, on the brink of tears, and lambasted the court and the process for holding Donald Trump accountable. Watch the moment below: Following her meltdown, CNN’s Jake Tapper put her speech into perspective by talking about her “effectiveness” as Trump’s attorney. Watch for yourself: This is the woman who said she’d rather be pretty than smart because she can fake being smart. Actually, she can’t. She proved that with her embarrassing performance in federal court. She’s better hope that Trump keeps her on for the rest of his life and actually pays his bills because no one else in their right mind would hire this ridiculous person.

The Wall St. Journal breaks from the MAGA GOP which may have some effect on donors and, therefore, Republican politicians: The Wall Street Journal‘s editorial board is warning Republicans that they may pay a political price for letting Donald Trump rip up a deal to beef up border security measures and provide more aid to Ukraine. On Wednesday, Punchbowl News reported that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) had told his colleagues that they were in a “quandary” because Trump opposes the deal and the caucus doesn’t want to do anything to “undermine” the likely Republican presidential nominee. The Journal submitted that following Trump’s command “would be a self-inflicted wound.” “President Biden would claim, with cause, that Republicans want border chaos as an election issue rather than solving the problem,” argued its editors. “Voter anger may over time move from Mr. Biden to the GOP, and the public will have a point.

Only a commitment to the precepts of realism can explain the procrastination and distancing by politicians from the slaughter and destruction in Gaza. Only the realist logic could see the flood of crocodile tears from governments for the poor Palestinians, without ever condemning America as the arsenal of Israel’s war on women and children. Only Continue reading »

Canadians are destroying their boreal forests. Kelp forests need help worldwide. Advice for Australian company directors on preparing for climate change. New uses for old wind turbine blades. I thought I’d finalised my first column for 2024; it was going to open with the next two tree-related stories. However, an article in last Saturday’s Sydney Continue reading »

Nuclear risk reduction, abolition, more, urgent than ever. With the iconic ‘Doomsday Clock’, curated by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists founded in 1947 by Einstein and others associated with the Manhattan Project, seemingly stuck at 90 seconds to ‘midnight’ (midnight being the catastrophic end of civilisation) for at least another 12 months, we are Continue reading »

Lost in the sands of Iraq… Lost in the sands of Iraq A reward for fantasy WMDs may just spark A reality check for those who refused to accept The flimsiest of flimsy intelligence was maybe incorrect That danger did not lurk under the hot blazing desert sands Now benign with the thousands of bodies Continue reading »

Anyone who thinks so is just plain dumb. It has obviously been stunningly successful. It has produced huge increases in wealth, for instance in the last few years the three richest people in Australia doubled their wealth. It has worked like a dream. The trouble is that it does not and is not designed to Continue reading »

Albanese government must apply lessons from UK post office scandal to save Australia Post and licensees. The scandal that has rocked United Kingdom politics following ITV broadcasting the four-part drama Mr Bates vs. the Post Office on 1-4 January should concern Australian parliamentarians, as it has a parallel in Australia Post’s treatment of small business Continue reading »

In 2018, I wrote about Australia Day and Wattle Day for The New Daily. While in 2024 some crazy drums still beat to PC tunes, the federal government has lowered the temperature. Soon we will be able to have a rational debate which may lead us to September 1, Wattle Day, which could become the Continue reading »

Former prime minister John Howard has defended his record on committing Australia to the Iraq war. But we are no closer to fully understanding his reasons. Former Prime Minister John Howard’s response (The Australian Financial Review letters, January 15) to my column in these pages on January 8 offers an important opportunity for Australians to Continue reading »

Prisons don’t work. When you look at the lives of people being imprisoned, it’s no wonder. Prisons are expensive. According to the Productivity Commission, it costs well over $5 billion a year to keep 40,000-plus people in gaol. In 2019-20, that worked out to $280 per prisoner per day in operating costs alone. When capital Continue reading »

A few weeks ago walking past the Hiroshima A-Bomb Dome, I came upon a candle-light ceremony for the Israel/Gaza war. A young couple — she Jewish and he Muslim — were chanting prayers in Hebrew and Arabic, holding hands and weeping openly. Seeing the depth of pain ‘leaders’ in our region have caused these young Continue reading »

Who’s a civilian? The Atlantic: The International Court of Justice in The Hague today made an initial ruling, four weeks after an application from South Africa that accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians. The court ordered Israel to ensure that its military does not commit acts of genocide against Palestinians, to immediately improve humanitarian aid to Palestinians, and to prevent and punish genocidal incitement against Palestinians. However, the court stopped short of ordering Israel to end its military operations against Hamas, a nod to Israel’s right to respond in self-defense after the deadly Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7. South Africa had hoped the court would order such a cessation, in effect ruling in favor of an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. The court did also call for the immediate release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Given the dreadful toll of civilian deaths in Gaza, reportedly now topping 25,000, Israel should answer questions about its conduct. Every member of the United Nations’ 1948 Genocide Convention has an obligation to raise concerns if they have evidence that a group of people is at risk of genocide.

Plus, cancer vaccines work, states aim to tax the rich, and a fossil fuel project gets delayed.

What do Democrats offer instead? Donald “91 Counts” Trump will appeal the judgment, of course. It’s what he does as surely as “grab them.” He’ll appeal the $83.3 million judgment a Manhattan jury on Friday awarded E. Jean Carroll in her defamation case (The Guardian): Carroll will receive $18.3m in compensatory damages and $65m in punitive retribution. The former president is paying Carroll compensatory damages of $18.3m – $11m to fund a reputational repair campaign. The $7.3m is for the emotional harm caused by Trump’s 2019 public statements. Carroll and her legal team were beaming as they left court in a black SUV. They did not answer questions immediately after court let out. Moments after the decision was announced, Trump decried it as “absolutely ridiculous” on Truth Social, and said he would be filing an appeal. Naturally. Carroll’s attorney, Roberta Kaplan, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper she’d never seen someone as contemptuous of the U.S. justice system as Trump.

Doctor Who is defined as much by the TARDIS as it is by the Doctor & their companions, helping shape the identity of the show - and its hero.

Rep. Bill Foster and Qasim Rashid are on opposite sides of the Gaza ceasefire push — with AIPAC expected to get into the action.

The post Pro-Israel Illinois Democrat Cancels Two Debates Against Challenger Who Backs Gaza Ceasefire appeared first on The Intercept.

The impossibility of proper specification is true generally in regression analyses across the social sciences, whether we are looking at the factors affecting occupational status, voting behavior, etc. The problem is that as implied by the three conditions for regression analyses to yield accurate, unbiased estimates, you need to investigate a phenomenon that has underlying […]