Poll angst is a Democratic pastime but it’s a waste of time and energy If you are fretting about the NY Times poll (which polled 900 people) that everyone is fretting about, here’s a reminder of a time in the not too distant past when everyone was fretting about another NY TImes poll from Joan Walsh in 2022: It’s said to be wrong to kick a person when he or she is down. If Monday’s New York Times/Siena poll were a person, it’s been stomped so severely that a compassionate observer would step in to stop the fight. But even though the poll that launched a thousand headlines claiming the midterms are moving back toward Republicans, and that the so-called Dobbs effect—a shift to Democrats after the Supreme Court did away with a 50-year-old constitutional right to abortion—is subsiding, has been pretty thoroughly debunked by pollsters and progressive analysts, it still deserves attention (but no kicking here, folks).
Uncategorized
I thought this was excellent Mitch is leaving because his health is failing and he’s lost his grip on the caucus. Five years ago he was all in and did everything he could to maintain power by any means necessary. He’d do it again if he could. He just ran out of gas.
It helped Trump with his ludicrous assertion that Hillary didn’t have “the strength and the stamina” to be president. Do you think this garbage happens by accident? As we slog through yet another week of media onslaught saying “Biden’s old, old, old so everybody’s going to vote for Trump!” I thought I’d remind people of 2016, when one of the ongoing narratives was that Hillary Clinton was frail and dying from some unrevealed illness. I wrote this for Salon back in 2016: The right-wing smear machine is working at warp speed to convince the nation that Hillary Clinton has brain damage. That is not hyperbole or some kind of a joke. They are literally claiming that she is hiding a physical and mental disability that renders her unfit for office. And they are, as usual, being helped by members of the mainstream media who are simply unable to resist “reporting” such a juicy tale even knowing that it is absurd. And so it becomes part of the narrative, true or not, that will color the rest of the campaign and Clinton’s presidency should she win.
I wanted to share Scott Rosenberg’s analysis of this NY Times Poll that has everyone melting down today: It’s A Close, Competitive Election – Yes, the NYT released a poll today that has Trump ahead. Some initial thoughts: Lots of other polls show the race even, competitive – Three national polls released this week (below) have the race even. 538’s Congressional Generic tracker is tied, 44%-44%. A new battleground state poll produced by top Democratic pollsters has Trump and Biden tied at 40%. Another battleground state poll that hasn’t been released yet that I was just briefed on has it 41%-39% Trump, essentially the same results. Senate polling is slightly better for us than for Republicans right now. The Times poll has Trump leading among likely voters by 4 points, 48%-44%. This is a gain of 6 points for Trump since the December Times poll. None of these other polls have found a GOP surge of this magnitude or even a GOP lead. So the NYT results are not confirmed in lots of other recent polling which finds the race close and competitive, which is where I think it is now.
A conversation from first principles “On the Continued Battle for the Soul of the Nation” was President Joe Biden’s topic on September 1, 2022 at Independence Hall in Philadelphia. “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic,” he warned, and warned again: MAGA Republicans do not respect the Constitution. They do not believe in the rule of law. They do not recognize the will of the people. They refuse to accept the results of a free election. And they’re working right now, as I speak, in state after state to give power to decide elections in America to partisans and cronies, empowering election deniers to undermine democracy itself. MAGA forces are determined to take this country backwards — backwards to an America where there is no right to choose, no right to privacy, no right to contraception, no right to marry who you love. They promote authoritarian leaders, and they fan the flames of political violence that are a threat to our personal rights, to the pursuit of justice, to the rule of law, to the very soul of this country.
Punching back with style. Too bad it was behind closed doors. A Tweet (suck it, Musk) regarding the closed-door House questioning of Hunter Biden caught my attention in a big way. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) used his questioning time to punch back against the GOP’s phony Burisma inquiry. Enjoy, from the transcript: BRILLIANT! If you have not read Eric Swalwell’s questions to Hunter Biden during his hearing, you have to. SWALWELL: Any time your father was in government, prior to the Presidency or before, did he ever operate a hotel? BIDEN: No, he has never operated a hotel. SWALWELL: So he’s never operated a hotel where foreign nationals spent millions at that hotel while he was in office? BIDEN: No, he has not. SWALWELL: Did your father ever employ in the Oval Office any direct family member to also work in the Oval Office? BIDEN: My father has never employed any direct family members, to my knowledge. SWALWELL: While your father was President, did anyone in the family receive 41 trademarks from China? BIDEN: No.
That applies to clickbait polls like today’s NYT poll that has everyone spinning out. No, women are not suddenly voting for Trump. And this too:
He’s still at it: Former President Donald Trump was accused in a lawsuit Wednesday of trying to “drastically dilute” the value of stock shares in his social media company held by the firm’s co-founders, potentially depriving themof hundreds of millions of dollars in profits. The partnership, United Atlantic Ventures alleges that Trump Media & Technology Group engaged in “wrongful 11th hour … maneuvering” to dilute UAV″s minority stake in the media company, a court filing says. The Delaware Chancery Court lawsuit comes in advance of the planned merger of TMTG with a shell company called Digital World Acquisition Corp., which would result in the shares of the combined entity being publicly traded. If DWAC shareholder approve the merger next month, Trump’s 90% stake in TMTG could be valued at more than $3 billion, given DWAC’s current share price.
Marge Greene has been fighting funding Ukraine from the get and now she has the power to stop it altogether. And she’s using it. Speaker Mike Johnson, and everyone else in the House GOP caucus, is scared to death of this woman. She is the defacto Speaker of the House because any speaker knows that she will trip that motion to vacate without a second thought and that will be the end of their speakership. McCarthy managed to co-opt her early because he knew how dangerous she was but she’s not going to make that mistake again. She knows her power lies in being the most vicious, ruthless person in the US Congress and she won’t give it away again. If Johnson crosses her, he’s done and he knows it. Among the loudest voices taking Johnson to task is Greene, who has threatened to file a motion to vacate his office if he does not meet the demands of herself and other hardline conservative House GOP members, particularly on opposition to providing more aid to Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia.
Hoookay…. I don’t know the story here, but anyone who would do this, even as a joke, is seriously messed up. It may be a cult but this is something even more disturbing. Chauncy deVega at Salon has an interesting compendium of commentary by various experts in Christian nationalism today that’s well worth reading. Here’s one excerpt from Katherine Stewart the author of “The Power Worshippers: Inside the Dangerous Rise of Religious Nationalism.” There’s a disconnect between the reality and the narrative framing that sticks to everything. For example, we continue to get horse race coverage that tells us about Trump’s “big win” in South Carolina as if this were just another normal election cycle. On the other hand, the combination of Trump’s legal jeopardy and his increasingly unhinged, overtly fascist rhetoric is indisputable evidence that what we are facing is anything but normal. As for Trump’s claims about being a prophet or some type of messiah, I think we have here a convergence between what appears to be Trump’s mental disorder and the needs of a base that has been primed for fascism.