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MSNBC’s data guy Steve Kornacki took a look at the polling a few days ago that I think addresses some of the weirdness we’re seeing with the national polls and the election results. Donald Trump is winning his primaries handily and has a virtual lock on the Republican presidential nomination — but a common interpretation of the results says that he is also exhibiting profound weaknesses among independents that portend dire general election consequences. But there’s a hitch. A look at general election polling reveals a completely different story among independent voters — and a dive into all the other data we have on the 2024 presidential race shows why Trump’s poor independent numbers in the primary and better performance in general election polls are completely consistent with each other. The short answer: These are two very different groups of voters. First, the evidence for Trump’s weakness among independents voting in this year’s GOP primaries is straightforward. Despite the widely acknowledged — even by his critics — inevitability of his nomination, Trump is still losing around 40% of the vote in Republican contests.

No more Mr. Nice Guys It’s clear from clips from Trump rally “The Daily Show” and “The Good Liars” that MAGAstan is a peculiar country with a history wildly divergent from our own and worthy of the Marvel Cinematic Multiverse. Those clips are selectively chosen for maximum comedic effect, of course. But what those clips drive home is that what many Americans think they know about recent events is not just bizarre but harmful to their futures. and their children’s. With the Supreme Court this week aiding and abetting Donald “91 Counts” Trump’s effort to ensure that justice delayed is justice denied, Greg Sargent believes those of us committed to truth, justice and the American way must double down on ensuring that even MAGAstan residents know that it is their rights Trump means to trample. Consider Liz Cheney’s response to the court’s decision to hear Trump’s presidential immunity appeal: It is our right as citizens to know whether the man (some of us) will be voting for this fall is a felon indicted by and convicted by juries of his peers, everyday Americans like the residents of MAGAstan.

One story here and one there don’t make the point I’m just going to leave these right here. Did an Abortion Ban Cost a Young Texas Woman Her Life? (January 2024) Republican Officials Openly Insult Women Nearly Killed by Abortion Bans (January 2024) Ohio Woman Who Miscarried Faces Charge That She Abused Corpse (January 2024) Woman suing Texas over abortion ban vomits on the stand in emotional reaction during dramatic hearing (July 2023) She was denied an abortion in Texas – then she almost died (June 2023) Two friends were denied care after Florida banned abortion. One almost died. (April 2023) Ohio abortion law meant weeks of ‘anguish,’ ‘agony’ for couple whose unborn child had organs outside her body (February 2023) She had ‘a baby dying inside’ her. Under Missouri’s abortion ban, doctors could do nothing.

I don’t care a much about the notion of “American dominance” or “prestige” but I do care a lot about the prospect of the planet being blown up and destroying the institutions and alliances that make it possible to reverse catastrophic climate change. All of that is becoming closer to reality as Donald Trump continues to dictate American foreign policy from his gaudy social club in Palm Beach. One of the best things about the Trump administration is how copiously it leaked to the press, so in real time and later through the many books and articles that were written about that tumultuous term, we have a very detailed understanding of the man’s worldview went he went in and what it is today. We know that even after four years in the most important job in the world, he didn’t learn a thing about world affairs. According to “A Very Stable Genius” by Carol Leonnig and Philip Rucker, by July of 2017 it had become clear to Trump’s national security and economic team that he desperately needed some tutoring in order to understand the importance of America’s key alliances.

This takes courage. There are many cameras there and most observers believe the police are making note. The Navalny family couldn’t come, of course. They would have been immediately arrested.

I’d imagine like most of you, I have been very puzzled by the number of Latino voters who are supporters of Donald Trump considering his obvious racist hostility toward them. He is actually proposing to round them up and deport them in massive numbers which would seem like it should be a deal breaker. I think this explains it: Hispanic Protestants are among the biggest supporters of Christian nationalism despite the belief system’s anti-immigrant and anti-diversity stances, according to a new survey. Around two-thirds of Americans surveyed said they reject or are skeptical about Christian nationalism, but its prominence in the GOP is helping shape its educational, health care and immigration policies. -New data from the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute’s American Values Atlas released Wednesday showed 55% of Hispanic Protestants, most of whom identify as evangelical, hold Christian nationalist beliefs. -About 66% of white evangelicals hold such views  — the biggest share of any group surveyed. -Among Latino Catholics, 72% said they rejected or were skeptical of Christian nationalism.

Following up on the post below about Hispanic Christian Nationalists, here Philip Bump takes a deep dive into the PRRI poll on Christian Nationalism’s relationship to Trump. Last year, PRRI asked a wide swath of Americans to evaluate several statements oriented around the idea of instituting Christian nationalism. Some were explicit: “The U.S. government should declare America a Christian nation,” for example. Others were more esoteric: “Being Christian is an important part of being truly American.” From the responses, PRRI categorized respondents into one of four groups. Two were supportive of Christian nationalism, including the most supportive of the statements (adherents) and those who were generally supportive (sympathizers). The other two groups were hostile to the ideas, from those who mostly disagreed (skeptics) to those who rejected all the ideas (rejecters). Using this scale, PRRI estimated the percentage of each state’s population that was supportive of Christian nationalism — that is, that were adherents or supporters.

Pine martens, a species of mammal related to weasels and badgers, were once common throughout Britain. But sadly, due to habitat loss in recent centuries, their numbers were greatly reduced — bordering on the brink of extinction. Thanks to conservation efforts, pine martens have begun to make a comeback, but sightings of these shy animals remain rare. “Unfortunately, pine martens are notoriously difficult to spot,” Charlie Mellor of the Woodland Trust wrote. “They are so elusive that they are often studied via footprints, droppings and bits of lost fur rather than by direct sightings.” Recently, however, footage has emerged hinting at a lesser-discussed aspect of pine marten behavior — that they know how to have a good time. Les Humphrey lives in Scotland, near the northern tip of Great Britain. There, he has a motion-sensing camera pointed out toward his garden to monitor for pine martens passing through.

In my latest article for Compact, I look at the violence spreading like wildfire across the Middle East, which took a particularly worrying turn after Sunday’s deadly attack on an American base in Jordan, which claimed the lives of three US soldiers — and brought us one step closer to the terrifying scenario of an all-out war …

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I’ve written for UnHerd about Germany’s astonishing fall from grace — from economic powerhouse and unquestioned European hegemon to economic basket case and geopolitical laughing stock.