Here is another piece of Michael Podhorzer’s in-depth analysis of the election using some of the very reliable vote cast data. He finds that the problem is not that voters moved right — Trump got essentially the same proportion of the electorate he got in 2020 — it’s that a lot of Democrats decided not to vote, especially in Blue states. There may have been many reasons for the loss but it does not appear that it was a rousing endorsement of Trumpy fascism. One reason this happened is because Trump the pathological liar has the benefit of people not believing anything he says, which I would never have thought would be an asset for a politician but here we are: Anat adds: “Further, as we heard from this cohort across focus groups, they’re skeptical that electing Democrats would actually prove an effective check on MAGA’s power.” This is the one-two punch that knocked out Harris’s chances this year: disaffection with Democrats, combined with incredulity at the idea that Trump might actually implement the worst parts of the MAGA agenda. Why did they think the Democrats would be an ineffective check?
Uncategorized
Coincidences or not? As authorities investigate Wednesday’s New Orleans truck attack on Bourbon Street and the Cybertruck explosion in front of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, one odd detail links the two. Or doesn’t. Both vehicles were rented using the peer-to-peer rental app, Turo. Axios reports that Clark County/Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Sheriff Kevin McMahill said “there was no immediate indication of a connection between the two events, but ‘we are investigating every aspect of this.’ “ The New York Times reports: The owner of the Ford pickup truck used in New Orleans recognized his vehicle when he saw footage showing the truck and license plate on the news. He had rented the truck to a 42-year-old Army veteran who then used it to ram into crowds on Bourbon Street, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more. […] In Las Vegas, the police said during a news conference that the Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside the Trump Hotel’s lobby entrance, killing one and injuring at least seven others, was also rented from Turo.
Chuck Schumer weighs in on DNC chair race This is new (Politico): Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer is endorsing Ben Wikler to lead the Democratic National Committee, a boost for the Wisconsin state party leader in a race that has drawn little attention and few big names. Schumer’s endorsement — shared first with POLITICO — comes as Democrats prepare for a month-long campaign to run the DNC, with four candidate forums in January. Following the party’s bruising losses in November, members of the committee will elect their new chair on Feb. 1. Schumer, the most prominent Democrat so far to weigh in publicly on the race, called Wikler a “tenacious organizer,” a “proven fundraiser” and a “sharp communicator” in a statement. He emphasized Wikler’s work in 2024, when Democrats in Wisconsin held on to their Senate seat and flipped 14 state legislative seats, even though Kamala Harris did not win the state. “Ben has what Democrats need right now — proven results — and that’s why I’m backing Ben,” Schumer said. Kudos to Wikler, 43, who I met in 2019.
Not Gonna Happen Trump has a tremendous amount of power as the executive (some of it still subject to judicial interpretation.) But anything he wants to do that requires Congress is going to be an extremely heavy lift. Notus reports: But as Republicans try to shake off a close call with a government shutdown and prepare for Donald Trump’s first 100 days, lawmakers are starting to grapple with a simple reality: They may not be able to do much of anything. “They can’t even extend government funding,” a frustrated Sen. Josh Hawley told NOTUS in December, as the House GOP nearly imploded over a stopgap spending bill. “They’re going to do this all over again in March. There’s a debt ceiling fight coming up,” he said. “Good luck.” Before Trump even takes office on Jan. 20, House Republicans must elect a speaker — a delicate, historically difficult task given the mutiny currently on Mike Johnson’s hands. Republicans then had to agree to a rules package, which was released on Wednesday.
Ernie Tedeschi, the director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab who in March wrapped up a three-year stint on the White House Council of Economic Advisers was asked by Business Insider, “was the “vibecession” fake? He replied: “The short answer is no. The vibecession was not fake. The long answer is no, but … ,” he said. Perceptions of the economy have to do with more than the economy itself. That doesn’t mean that people were lying or that their answers didn’t have some real economic motivation, but there’s clearly more to it than the material conditions in front of them — it’s also about their ideological leanings and how that shapes what they believe is ahead.”Perceptions of the economy are definitely deeply partisan,” Tedeschi said. That’s right.
More infighting in MAGAworld: Billionaire Trump surrogate Elon Musk defended his decision to strip critics of their ability to monetize content on X after cracking down on dissent on the social network. Responding to a supporter who defended “people getting demonetized for their inexcusable behavior,” Musk declared, “Exactly. The first amendment is protection for ‘free speech’, not ‘paid speech’ ffs.” He demonetized people who criticized him specifically. I don’t know why anyone would be too surprised by that. He’s essentially an employer of people making money on X and employers have every right to muzzle speech on the job. Of course he did that. All you have to do is read his Twitter feed to see what an onanistic, self-indulgent, narcissist he is. In any case, his “free speech” crusade is very contingent on whose speech should be protected, not what or where. He likes to have it both ways.
This is terrifying: This is even more terrifying: The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was one of President Joe Biden’s chief legislative victories and the largest investment to fight the climate crisis in U.S. history. Trump and congressional Republicans have taken aim at the law to unwind much of Biden’s legacy and spur domestic fossil fuel production. Among the moves that could raise revenue: revoking the law’s $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, new vehicle emissions rules and other incentives for clean energy production. Trump and the GOP could also green-light a major expansion of energy production on protected federal lands. Together, the CRFB projected, that could produce $700 billion in cost savings and new revenue over the next decade. One step forward two steps back. It’s a terrible, terrible mistake but I’m fairly sure this will be a priority.
Chief Justice John Roberts is mad as a hornet about all the criticism: Chief Justice John Roberts on Tuesday blasted what he called “illegitimate activity” aimed at undermining the independence of the judiciary. While facing criticism of contentious court rulings is part of the job for judges, some recent actions have crossed the line, Roberts said in his annual end-of-year report. He outlined four areas of concern: violence, intimidation, disinformation and threats to defy court judgments. All four “undermine our Republic, and are wholly unacceptable,” Roberts wrote. It’s pretty clear from the report that what he’s really angry about is the criticism that some of the Justices are corrupt and partisan. But it’s also highly unlikely that he’s talking about Trump who calls them every name in the book if they rule in a way he doesn’t ‘t like.
He’s itching to do it The Republicans in Congress are also very, very thirsty for a shooting war. Normally, they’d be agitating for something in the middle east, maybe China, maybe even Ukraine. But since Trump took over they have to pretend that they’re pacifist isolationists. So Mexico it is, at least at first. I wrote about this earlier, based on a lot of reporting by Rolling Stone. They are taking about a “soft invasion” in which they drop in Special Forces to “take out” the leaders of the cartels. (The other option is an actual invasion force at the border.) They just published an update: Rolling Stone talked to half a dozen former special operations soldiers and intelligence agents to see what this saber-rattling might look like in practice. On paper, they argued it was an easy operation to dismantle the cartel leadership, something that our military — particularly units like SEAL Team Six and Delta Force — has mastered after two decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. To a man, all said they’d volunteer for the mission.
Any more like Massie on the back bench? Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) is still working to secure enough votes to re-up his speakership despite the endorsement of the president-elect. The House votes to elect a speaker for the 119th Congress at noon today (Friday). With the GOP’s razor-thin margin, more than two defections can sink him. The Hill: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) affirmed his decision to not support Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) in the Speaker’s race, even if his colleague Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) would land a top spot on the House Rules Commitee. Massie was asked by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a new host on One America News Network, if he would vote for Johnson if Roy would become the chairman of the influential committee. “Oh no. You can pull all my fingernails out, you can shove bamboo up in them, you can start cutting off my fingers,” Massie responded late Thursday. “I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow, and you can take that to the bank,” he told his former colleague.