Avarice and Artifice Since before the days of traveling medicine shows, Americans displayed a knack both for peddling bullshit and for buying it. Cultural touchstone: Dorothy’s Professor Marvel. Paradigm case: the 2024 presidential election. But the latter is simply a more visible instance of the phenomenon. Let’s look at two cases of Americans’ willingness to believe that private capitalism is always superior at delivering services over collective, government, not-for-profit programs. As with snake oil, it begins with a con man. With avarice and artifice. Timothy Noah this morning considers efforts to privatize Medicare. Donald Trump claims he won’t. (Trump also makes claims about his height, weight, and net worth.) Noah cites a Wall Street Journal report from Wednesday (I don’t have access) that shows that despite widely touted claims that the private sector is more efficient at providing health care, well, it does not.
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The NY Times published a fun feature called “11 Data Points and Discoveries That Surprised Us in 2024.” I thought this one was particularly pertinent to Democratic navel gazing about the election: Special elections really were all about turnout, and thus meant little for November Why were Democrats doing so well in special elections, even though polls showed Joe Biden doing so poorly? I collected and analyzed data on who had been voting in special elections, and this chart was my “eureka” moment. On the y-axis: how well Democrats fared in a special election, compared with the 2020 election result. On the x-axis: our estimates for the 2020 vote choice of the same special electorates, based on exactly who voted and our previous estimates for the likelihood that registered voters backed Mr. Biden in 2020. As you can see, there’s a decent one-to-one relationship, implying that these election results were mostly a function of turnout, not persuasion. The biggest surprise, for me, wasn’t simply that there was a decent correlation between turnout and results.
I think we may have found out why Trump is suddenly talking about territorial expansion. Somebody mentioned a little history over dinner and YMCA at MAL and he got all excited. He thinks it will be his Louisiana Purchase and he’ll go down in history as bigger than Alexander the Great. Apropos of nothing: You’ll be glad to know that his minions are hard at work normalizing this lunacy:
Thank you everyone for hanging in with me and the rest of the Hullabahooligans this past year. 2025 is going to be tough but we’ll get through it together! cheers! digby
You don’t know what you got ’til it’s gone People with higher profiles have warned what could happen to this country under Donald Trump if he were reelected to the White House. I did so myself in 2024 here and here and here. Those three posts all referenced Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk,” his celebration of selfless dedication, essentially, in public service by geeks more interested in mission than in money. Blasphemy! In a few short weeks, America will embark on a journey into the unknown. Dave Neiwert published “Alt America” in 2017 about the rise of the eliminationist alt-right movement. Trumpism, an expression of that movement, seeks not only to eliminate non-white immigrants but those very civil servants who make the nation you know the nation you know. Stephen E. Hanson and Jeffrey S. Kopstein consider what it means that Trump 2.0 will be staffed with incompetents and cronies chosen more for their loyalty to one man than to stewardship of the republic that will be 250 years old in 18 months. What Trump and those backing him intend for this country is not new, inventive, or an improvement on popular sovereignty.
He’s the smartest broke billionaire in the room No superlatives are too bigly to describe El Caudillo del Mar-a-Lago. Trump knows competence “I always felt we have to have the most competent people in our country. We need competent people. We need smart people coming into our country.” It takes a very stable genius to recognize other extraordinary people like RFK Jr. and foreign models. Trump knows social media Days ago, Trump filed an amicus brief on his desire to rescue TikTok from the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act that will likely ban the app in the U.S. on January 19. Even the Wall Street Journal found Trump’s argument preposterous. He wants the Court to treat him (a private citizen) as though he’s co-president with Joe Biden before being sworn in (Raw Story): “The brief is extraordinary in several ways, none of them good,” the board said, later adding: “Mr. Trump wants the Court to treat him as if he’s already President before he’s inaugurated.” Trump for all intents and purposes is a “private citizen” until he’s inaugurated, the board countered.
Remember yesterday when I called Elon the son Trump never had? Well… Donald Trump Jr. has trashed his father’s annual New Year’s Eve bash at Mar-a-Lago on his “Triggered with Don Jr.” podcast, calling it “amateur night” and saying guests have often treated him like a “freaking imbecile.” Footage of this year’s celebrations captured Donald and Melania Trump, running mate J.D. Vance (and his wife Usha) and partying MAGA supporters clapping and singing along to Village People’s “YMCA.” He was there but he wasn’t having any fun. Probably because Lara Trump was singing. And then there was this which angered Don Jr’s pals to no end: It seems his voters didn’t know about this, since he never mentioned it. In fact, he was on record opposing the H-1B visas for years: Many of the rubes won’t know about this or they’ll forgive him. But it’s caused a huge rift among the big MAGA grassroots leaders. It’s going to be a problem.
At this point we have very limited information about the attack in New Orleans last night. It’s a horrific assault which the authorities are saying they don’t believe was done as a lone act of terrorism. The story is unfolding and very little is known as yet except for the fact that the perpetrator was an American from Texas whom they think was flying an ISIS flag. If you’d been on Elon’s hellhole for the past few hours — or watching Fox News — you would have been told that he was an illegal immigrant who had come over the border unlawfully in the last few days, among other lies. I’m not going to speculate about what this is about but I wanted to alert everyone once more to the fact that Twitter is a cesspool of misinformation on any day but especially at times like these, much of it led by dishonest MAGA leaders. It’s a terrible space during any kind of emergency nowadays which is truly sad because it used to be so good. BlueSky doesn’t have the scale but if you got there at least you won’t be confronted with a bunch of MAGA weirdos, foreign bots and racist miscreants flooding the zone with lies.
Will they finally catch on? I keep saying that reality is going to bite Trump eventually. I refuse to believe that his con game isn’t going to catch up with him and I don’t think for a moment that he’s got some kind of magic that transcends all reason. He’s a very lucky guy who happened into the political world at a time when celebrity, social media and right wing propaganda outlets were ascendant in our society and he exploited it like the grifter he is. But the cult he built is like all cults — it’s strong until it isn’t. And its strength is about to be tested. The New Republic’s Robert McCoy took a look at the weird phenomenon as well as the possible reckoning ahead: Consider these archetypal dispatches from the 2024 campaign trail. “A lot of people are happy to vote for [Trump] because they simply do not believe he will do many of the things he says he will,” an October New York Times “campaign notebook” entry observed.
ABC News: Authorities are investigating a Tesla Cybertruck explosion on Wednesday outside the Trump Las Vegas hotel in Nevada as a possible act of terror. The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department said it was investigating a fire at the entrance to the tower. The public was told to avoid the area, though the police noted the fire had been put out. The driver pulled into the valet area of the hotel and the vehicle exploded, according to an official. The driver is apparently dead and, so far, the only casualty from the incident. Seven bystanders had minor injuries, authorities said. Investigators do not know what caused the blast, such as whether something was wrong with the vehicle or whether something external prompted it. Determining what was behind the explosion is the key focus of the probe. An official briefed on the probe told ABC News that the Tesla Cybertruck had a load of fireworks-style mortars onboard. Investigators are urgently working to determine a motive and whether the driver intended to set off an explosion and why. You CANNOT make this shit up.