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Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 16:04
The Elements Of Persuasion

Many posts I write aren’t intended to be persuasive if you don’t already agree with me on some axes. Take, for example, the post “some acts are always evil.” I chose rape as my example: it is not possible to have a justified rape. If you agree with this, you’ll agree that some acts are always evil. If you don’t think rape is never justified, then my argument won’t work with you, and indeed it didn’t work with all the commenters for just that reason.

There are three primary elements of persuasion.

Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 10:00
I know why: sabotaging the Democratic Party is his raison d’etre This No Labels gambit is such utter bullshit I’m hard pressed not to just start screaming into the void. I’ve been watching Joe Lieberman take a wrecking ball to the Democratic Party for decades now and he’s not done yet. In this article in the Atlantic, he insists that he doesn’t want Trump to be the nominee and that he just wants to provide a “moderate” “centrist” option since that’s what he believes everyone in America really wants. But he’s very hard pressed to answer why he is determined to threaten his old friend Joe Biden: Lieberman is clear about his distaste for Trump, but he’s hazier on the question of why—or even whether—Biden has fallen short. He’s said repeatedly that if the choice came down to Biden or Trump, he’d vote for the Democrat, and he speaks affectionately of a man he first met nearly 40 years ago and with whom he served for 20 years in the Senate. Yet he’s still hunting for a better option.
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 08:30
I think you know… No surprise here:  A Popular Information analysis of @RobertKennedyJr’s first FEC filing reveals the lion’s share of Kennedy’s biggest donors have PREVIOUSLY DONATED ONLY TO REPUBLICANS Follow along for details.  Through 6/30, Kennedy’s campaign has collected the maximum, $6,600, from 96 individuals. 37 individuals have previously only donated to Republican candidates for federal office. Only 19 have a history of consistently supporting Dem candidates Mark Dickson, a Californian who amassed a fortune in the aerospace industry, has donated more than 450K to federal candidates since 2015 The total includes $400,000 to Trump Victory Dickson has NEVER supported a Democrat running for office Until he maxed out to Kennedy   Keith Sheldon, a retired car dealership executive from Argyle, Texas, has consistently backed Trump, maxing out in 2016 and 2020. He also donated $2.9K to Herschel Walker. And thousands to House GOP candidates. But nothing to Dems. Until he maxed out to Kennedy.  Kennedy has dozens of maxed out donors with similar giving histories. And a much smaller number with a history of donating to Dems.
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 07:00
JV Last made an excellent point about the upcoming presidential election: The 2024 election has no modern precedent and this unprecedented difference (1) Is not properly appreciated, and (2) Explains why the race has been so stable. This thing is so obvious that you’re going to dismiss it out of hand. But I want you to work through it with me: No one living has seen an election in which two presidents have run against one another. And that changes everything. Let me explain. What is the fundamental hurdle that every presidential candidate has to overcome? When the voter looks at the candidate, she asks, Can he do the job? That’s it. That’s the big question. And the answer is binary: Voters have to imagine each candidate as the chief executive and decide either, Yes, this person is a plausible president, or No, this person is not up to the office. One of the (many) advantages an incumbent president has is that he has proven that he can do the job. This sword has two edges: An incumbent’s presidential record can be attacked. Some voters may like it. Some may not.
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 05:00
Philip Bump with a smart take on the DeSantis campaign “retooling” There was California Gov. Pete Wilson in September 1995, who, the Associated Press reported at the time, was heading “into the fall with a new plan to cut costs but without veteran strategist George Gorton” as he sought the Republican presidential nomination. He’d drop out soon after. In June 1999, it was Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) who, according to the Houston Chronicle, “scaled back his [presidential] campaign operation” because of “the difficulties of raising money in a crowded Republican field.” He was out by August. In June 2003, it was Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) who needed to figure out “how to build on the campaign’s fundraising successes while cutting costs,” as the National Journal wrote. He made it to February of the following year. It seems as though there’s a candidate like this in every cycle, the one who jumps into the presidential race only to quickly overextend themselves, demanding a scaling-back of staff even before winter. In 2011 it was Jon Huntsman Jr. In 2015, Jeb Bush. In 2019, Kamala D.
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 04:58
On his way to Beijing to repair bilateral climate change relations John Kerry announced to the world the US would ‘under no circumstances’ pay climate change ‘reparations’ to the developing world. Why such a statement?  Some enterprising researchers help explain why by producing data which confirms the extent to which the Global North is responsible Continue reading »
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 04:56
A lot of opportunities have been missed to engage more closely with Indonesia over the last few decades, a period when Australian government enthusiasm and funding for engagement with Indonesia declined significantly. Correcting that is getting harder as time goes on and Indonesia grows in economic and political influence. The recent three-day visit to Australia Continue reading »