Swing voters swing, Biden delivers Trends are more important than individual polls. Since Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts (with more cases pending), polling trend lines now favor Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race. Polling immediately after Trump’s convictions was too soon to pick up the shift. Two-time Trump voters have had enough. Donald Trump is bleeding support. “My guess is right now, this is gonna be a blip,” pollster Lee Carter told Fox News’ Fox & Friends this morning. “I don’t think this is something that’s long term. Sure. Just a flesh wound. Significantly, there has been a large swing since May among independent voters toward Biden. And since they are the largest bloc of registrants in many states, independent turnout could be determinative. Simon Rosenberg tweets, “We’ve had lots of polling this year suggesting a Trump guilty conviction could weaken his coalition and cost him voters (as it should). We now have 6 national polls showing Biden gaining 2-4 pts since the conviction. Election appears to be changing, getting bluer.” The Fox poll was among registered voters.
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In many European countries over the past decades, there has been increasing frustration over what is perceived as a lack of social integration of immigrants and children of foreign-born parents. One factor that researchers and politicians have highlighted as a possible explanation is what is called ‘neighbourhood effects,’ which, simply put, refers to how the […]
And, it’s Chinese, of course.
The United States House of Representatives passed a ban on the future sale of DJI drones in the U.S. on Friday, making the DJI ban more likely than not. The “Countering CCP Drones Act” is part of the United States’ 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (FY25 NDAA), a major piece of yearly legislation allotting defense spending for the coming year.
Drone maker DJI is based in China and controls over 70% of the world’s drone market share, a combination that threatens U.S. lawmakers
The post Designer Jonathan Lee appeared first on Jeffrey Zeldman Presents.
Walk through any art museum and you’re likely to see a mix of the classical and contemporary, impressionist and surrealist, refined and raw, beautiful, eerie, and provocative. Looking at art allows me at least a few moments of relief from the “that’s just the way it is” attitude of our hyper-consumerist, hyper-militarized, hyper-nihilist nation. I can step outside my day-to-day life and accept an invitation, however briefly, to boundlessness! I can experience invention, creation, and re-creation just moments apart. I can see everyday objects with new eyes as they’re repurposed and reframed in extraordinary ways. I can celebrate the relentless power of human vision and imagination. In a museum, I often find that I can actually breathe. The Lyman Allyn... Read more
Source: The Art of the Submarine appeared first on TomDispatch.com.
Louisiana again The Pelican State is in the news again. No, it’s not for House Speaker Mike “18th-century values” Johnson, or for Rep. Clay “I’d drop any 10 of you where you stand” Higgins, or for Sen. John “Wanna buy my pig?”* Kennedy, all Republicans. Gov. Jeff Landry on Wednesday signed into law a bill requiring display of the Ten Commandments in every public classroom in Louisiana. This makes Louisiana the only state with such a requirement. A similar bill proposed in Texas last year failed. Someone recently suggested that if Christian legislators insist that the Ten Commandments be displayed in public schools, make them display The Beatitudes (the words of Jesus) right beside them. It’d likely be a deal-breaker. “I can’t wait to be sued,” Landry told the crowd at a Tennessee GOP fundraiser last Saturday. The American Civil Liberties Union and the Freedom From Religion Foundation promise to make Landry’s day.
Though her family sometimes received food stamps and occasionally had their utilities cut off, Marcie Alvis Walker’s parents led her to believe that they were an average middle-class Black family. They encouraged her to pursue her dreams and told her that if she worked hard enough, she’d achieve them. The small catch was that Walker’s dream was an elusive one for any cash-strapped and undereducated Black woman: being a New York Times–bestselling author. Now, as a published non-bestselling author, she wishes she’d had a backup plan.
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In an article written for Oprah magazine, the critically praised, award-winning author Dorothy Allison tells me:
Around a quarter of a million Brits living abroad could vote on 4 July, affecting results in areas they no longer live
As Doctor Who heads for a season finale, Russell T. Davies goes down to the wire with a blitz of tie-ins & teases to hype "Empire of Death."
The core purpose of RCTs is to use random assignment in order to ensure that the unconfoundedness assumption essential to identifying an average treatment effect holds. In the abstract, this is a strong argument for the method. Problems arise, however, when pristine asymptotic properties confront the muddy realities of field applications and strict control over […]
As Israel's claims of a premeditated Hamas mass rape campaign falter, shocking new revelations point to widespread sexual violence by Israeli forces.
The post Systematic Sexual Violence by Israeli Forces Revealed appeared first on MintPress News.
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In today's BCTV Daily Dispatch: My Hero Academia, Superman, Bluey, The Boys, Smiling Friends, Criminal Minds: Evolution, Doctor Who & more!
Human rights group Liberty says there is a "huge risk" of large numbers of voters being denied their democratic rights
Tactical sites should acknowledge the limitations of MRP projections for their advice, and look hard at how - and whether - they should publish the MRP data, and be more willing to press their manual override buttons
- by Aeon Video
- by Roman Krznaric
- by Hemant Kakkar & Garrett L Brady
Now is the time for the West to undo past mistakes and integrate a valuable country into becoming a future non-NATO ally
An analysis suggests labor issues like higher wages and hiring difficulties have prompted some firms to invest in automation, leading to productivity growth.
A few days ago I was rather cynical when I read that Dutton would release his nuclear plan within days. Ok, when I’m wrong I’ll be the first to admit it… Well, maybe not the first but I’ll certainly admit it when I have no other choice and it’s clear that nobody will believe me…
The post Dutton’s Detailed Plan… appeared first on The AIM Network.
Grassroots anti-AUKUS campaign, Labor Against War, joins with the ALP Government in condemning Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s desperate attempt to reignite the climate wars by announcing plans for seven nuclear reactors on land sites in Australia. Nuclear energy should play no part in Australia’s energy mix. Dutton’s distraction is about extending Australia’s reliance on, and Continue reading »