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Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 12:54
Today (February 15, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Labour Force, Australia – for January 2024, which confirms a weakening in the labour market. The signs of a slowdown were appearing in late 2023 and the January figures probably confirm that trend, although the changing holiday behaviour makes it difficult to…
Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 11:30
Recent papers have argued that monetary policy and economic conditions can influence the amount of innovative activity in the economy, and therefore productivity and living standards in the future. This paper examines whether this is the case for Australia, a small open economy that tends to import innovation from overseas. We find that contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy reduces (increases) aggregate research and development (R&D) spending, and that lower (higher) R&D spending reduces (increases) future productivity. However, using firm-level data and a broader survey measure of innovation that also captures adoption, we find heterogeneous responses across different firm types. Small firms decrease innovation in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks whereas large firms increase innovation. This heterogeneity appears to reflect differing exposure to the channels through which monetary policy affects innovation. These channels include affecting demand or affecting financial conditions and constraints. We also find that US monetary policy spills over and affects Australian firms' innovation.
Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 11:30
And I’m talking about stupid weird Monmouth poll:  – Just under 1 in 5 Americans believe the singer Taylor Swift is part of a covert effort to help President Joe Biden win the 2024 election. At the same time, the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll also finds that most Americans are supportive of efforts by Swift to encourage her fans to vote. Just under half (46%) of the American public has heard something about Swift being part of a supposed covert government effort to help Biden win the 2024 presidential election. Just under 1 in 5 Americans (18%) believe such a conspiracy involving Swift exists. Fully 71% of those who believe this identify with or lean toward the Republican Party and 83% indicate they are likely to support Donald Trump in the fall. Also, nearly three-quarters (73%) of those who believe the Swift conspiracy also believe the 2020 election outcome was fraudulent.
Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 10:00
This is good: None of that means she’s going to back off on the issues that matter to her — Gaza pre-eminent among them. It does mean that she isn’t being myopic about the stakes for the whole world, including Gaza, if Trump wins the election. It will be a nightmare of epic proportions. She is an amazing politician and I can’t wait to see how she matures even further. I would vote for her in a second.
Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 08:50
So when I joined the team last month, I mentioned that I work in development. That means I move around to different countries, to work on various projects. And in two weeks, I will be moving to Rwanda, in Central Africa. A couple of notes on this, for those who find such things interesting. 1)  […]
Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 08:30
Could it work this time? With members of the GOP at each others’ throats and yet another special election loss, largely due to their inane antics on the border/foreign military aid bill, it just might: With House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) swearing he will not allow a House vote on a Senate-passed bill to provide Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in weaponry to fight off a Russian invasion, supporters of aid to the nation ― who make up a clear majority of Congress ― are looking for alternatives. The option that’s been mentioned most is a so-called discharge petition, signed by a majority of House members to force a floor vote. But the history of discharge petitions shows they are far easier to talk about than actually execute. Still, it may prove to be the best available option to get the Ukranians needed weaponry. “It’s a dreadfully slow, cumbersome, and brittle process that is not well suited for anything dynamic or urgent,” said Liam Donovan, a former Republican Hill staffer and a partner at lobbying firm Bracewell LLP.
Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 07:00
Tom Sullivan posted another video of Dem strategist Scott Rosenberg discussing the win last night in NY earlier today. As you know, Rosenberg’s site is called “The Hopium Chronicles” and he called another one right last night. Here’s his post from today: In March of last year I launched this site and community with a memo, Get to 55, which argued that because of MAGA’s escalating extremism more would be possible for us in this electoral cycle. That we needed to go big and shoot to get to 55% of the national vote in November. That our strategy in 2024 should be one of growth and expansion, and taking away geographic and demographic terrain from them. That as Biden went big legislatively in 2021 and 2022, we needed to go big politically in 2023 and 2024 and make this election a clear repudiation of MAGA, which is the only way MAGA will start to lose its dark grip on the GOP – something that would be good for us, for Republicans, for the country.
Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 05:40
Why Voting For The Lesser Evil Is Strategic Imbecility

If a party can get your vote by being slightly less evil than the other party (and this applies to both the Republicans and Democrats to many voters), then they have no incentive to be good.

If you live in a society where parties are tending more and more evil, voting for less evil simply ensures that the trend will continue. Since “evil” in this case means “bad for ordinary people but great for me and people who bribe me”, there’s no reason for politicians enmeshed in the system, who rose under the system to do anything for the majority unless it benefits the rich and powerful more.

However politicians do sometimes change their votes or actions when in power based on needing to be elected.

Created
Thu, 15/02/2024 - 05:30
Lol. The greatest sore loser in the history of the world has a few words: You really have to wonder when the wingnuts are going to get tired of this. Ever? Or are they so brainwashed they’ll never learn?