Paul Krugman thinks we dodged that bullet but nobody’s noticed Krugman ‘s newsletter today lays out the data: Until quite recently there was a near consensus among forecasters that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession. In fact, it’s been exactly one year since Bloomberg declared that, according to its models, the probability of a recession by October 2023 — that is, now — was 100 percent. Oops. OK, it’s possible — barely — that a recession has begun but isn’t in the data yet. Economists of a certain age remember that for much of 2008 some commentators denied that there was a recession underway, but the official business cycle chronology now says that the worst slump since the 1930s began in December 2007. That said, warning indicators like the Sahm rule, which looks at the unemployment rate compared with its previous low, were flashing red by the summer of 2008, in a way they aren’t now: And forecasters, most of whom were very gloomy at the beginning of this year, have been backing off, with slightly fewer than half in a recent survey still predicting recession.
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The author on writing her new book “Ignition,” her dive into the new science of fighting wildfires.
The post My 3 Greatest Revelations appeared first on Nautilus.
The New York representative told his colleagues, “I would be embarrassed to use any credit card with Jim Jordan’s name on it.”
Nobody does it like MyKev Kevin McCarthy claims Democrats “created this mess,” prompting even a Fox News reporter to push back pic.twitter.com/mh3hdeUeKr — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 17, 2023 As I write this, Jordan just lost the Speaker vote by 20 Republican votes and he’s planning to go for another one. McCarthy’s insistence that this is all Democrats fault for refusing to vote for a fascist insurrectionist Republican for Speaker when he couldn’t even corral all the Republicans is pathetic. I’m sure he’s convinced millions of MAGA cult members that this is the problem because they have no idea how anything actually works. But please. There has to be at least a few Republicans left out there who realize that this is the stupidest thing he’s ever said. Right?
Accelerating change has become both addictive and intolerable. At this point, the balance among stability, change, and tradition has been upset; society has lost both its roots in shared memories and its bearings for innovation…An unlimited rate of change makes lawful community meaningless. Ivan Illich, Tools for Conviviality The ideology of Silicon Valley is clear: move […]
The nation’s biggest banks are netting big profits from rising interest rates while ripping off everyone else.
Let’s say Israel succeeds in taking out Hamas. Then what? President Biden will be in Israel tomorrow and his trip has likely been planned with an eye toward holding back the Israeli government from the impulsive, grief-driven decision making that can lead to massive errors in judgement. From what we understand, the US and allies have been pushing Israel to take a breath, consider the humanitarian consequences and think about the day after. If anyone knows the folly of acting out of emotion and/or opportunism after a catastrophic terrorist attack it’s the United States. And the stakes are even higher for Israel. One big demand on the part of the US is apparently that Israel have a plan for a post-Hamas Gaza. It’s unclear that they have one. This piece in the NY Times today by a post-war planner about what needs to be done seems highly relevant: I headed postwar Iraq planning for the U.S. State Department in 2002 and 2003. Once the White House decided in 2002 to remove Saddam Hussein by force, I cautioned my superiors that there needed to be serious planning for what would follow.
Australia’s biased friendship towards Israel undermines peace and forsakes justice for Palestinians, while serving neither Australian nor Israeli interests, writes Ben Saul. Former prime minister Gough Whitlam wrote in 1985 that while Australian governments always claimed to take a balanced approach to Israeli-Arab disputes before his own government was elected, “in practice they were thought Continue reading »
The deputy prime minister Richard Marles was asked by Insider’s host David Speers if the voters of Australia were right to roundly reject the constitutional recognition of Indigenous peoples and the Voice to parliament. Of course they were right, said Marles, they’re always right. In a press conference and later during question time in parliament, Continue reading »
Six years ago New Zealand’s Sixth Labour Government aimed to make New Zealand a better place in which to live. Its first term of three years was almost a dream run. It didn’t last. Disruption by outside influences including the COVID Pandemic and international inflation, and a disciplined election campaign by the political opposition combined Continue reading »
The high levels of loss of Yes voters to the No camp during the referendum campaign add indicators that the once social democratic contributions to governance are in trouble. Where once policies for fairness were seen as integral parts of good democracies, these have been replaced by neo liberal market models. This shows up too Continue reading »
Following Hamas’s heinous attack on innocent Israeli civilians, senior Israeli military strategists are threatening the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. This would be another Nakba (Arabic for catastrophe), akin to the mass expulsion of Palestinians from their homes and land in 1948. If Israel commits massive war crimes in Gaza in the face of global calls for restraint, Continue reading »
I am glad the article of Professor Trevor Parmenter “Rights are necessary but insufficient for the achievement of the full inclusion of people with disabilities” (P&I Sep 22, 2023) has been published. I am writing to say so, but as I send this off, I realize that I am involved in the very inter-dependent reciprocity Continue reading »
Bridge International Academies was in the midst of a key financing round when allegations of child sex abuse emerged. They fought back hard.
The post Whistleblower: The World Bank Helped Cover Up Child Sex Abuse at a Chain of For-Profit Schools It Funded appeared first on The Intercept.
As the former managing director and editor in chief of The Age newspaper (and founder of the Australian Press Council), this is a hard piece to write. In my view the mainstream media – journalists and commentators – have failed this country during the debate on the Voice. I have needed time to consider this Continue reading »
If we were to believe the UK’s Daily Mail, China should be in mourning, they have lost a crew of 55 and a Nuclear submarine. The Times, historically, a reputable media outlet led with the headline that “China kills own sailors with a trap set for British and US submarines”. But, if we were to Continue reading »
. Making appropriate extrapolations from (ideal, natural or quasi) experiments to different settings, populations or target systems, is not easy. “It works there” is no evidence for “it will work here.” The causal background assumptions made have to be justified, and without licenses to export, the value of ‘rigorous’ and ‘precise’ methods used when analyzing […]
As I sit here in every midwestern diner eating my chicken fried steak and mashed potatoes while drinking a non-woke beer, I have to shoo away the New York Times and Washington Post reporters hanging on my every word. The media elites recognize the real power of the American electorate is centered here in this crude high school art class version of a Norman Rockwell painting. Of course, with a 2020 rematch coming for November 2024, my opinion has never been more valuable.
That said, I’m having trouble deciding between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
I am not a single-issue voter. In past elections, I have voted for Democrats and Republicans. I just really need to consider who has the right values and intellect to be commander in chief again. Donald or Joe.
They’re not sending their best to the MAGA rallies During a New Hampshire event, Klepper stumped some of the supporters sporting the ex-president’s mugshot t-shirt that read “Never surrender.” “Never surrender to the tyranny,” said a blond young man, pronouncing the word tie-ranny. “What is Trump doing here on this shirt?” asked Klepper. “This is his mugshot,” the man said. “Gotcha. So that was taken when he surrendered to authorities to have his picture taken?” Klepper asked. There was an awkward silence as the man considered the word “Surrender.” “Huh?” is all the man could muster. This is the MAGA cult and while I’m sure there are many who aren’t quite this thick, Donald Trump is equally absurd dozens of times a day and they are willing to make him president of the United States.