Reading

Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 18:00
Lydia Henning, Simon Jurkatis, Manesh Powar and Gian Valentini Autumn 2022 saw some of the largest intraday moves in gilt yields in history. It was then that jargon normally confined to financial stability papers entered into mainstream commentary – ‘LDI’, ‘doom loop’, ‘deleveraging’. And it was then that the Bank of England engaged in an … Continue reading Lifting the lid on a liquidity crisis
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 16:04
The Elements Of Persuasion

Many posts I write aren’t intended to be persuasive if you don’t already agree with me on some axes. Take, for example, the post “some acts are always evil.” I chose rape as my example: it is not possible to have a justified rape. If you agree with this, you’ll agree that some acts are always evil. If you don’t think rape is never justified, then my argument won’t work with you, and indeed it didn’t work with all the commenters for just that reason.

There are three primary elements of persuasion.

Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 10:00
I know why: sabotaging the Democratic Party is his raison d’etre This No Labels gambit is such utter bullshit I’m hard pressed not to just start screaming into the void. I’ve been watching Joe Lieberman take a wrecking ball to the Democratic Party for decades now and he’s not done yet. In this article in the Atlantic, he insists that he doesn’t want Trump to be the nominee and that he just wants to provide a “moderate” “centrist” option since that’s what he believes everyone in America really wants. But he’s very hard pressed to answer why he is determined to threaten his old friend Joe Biden: Lieberman is clear about his distaste for Trump, but he’s hazier on the question of why—or even whether—Biden has fallen short. He’s said repeatedly that if the choice came down to Biden or Trump, he’d vote for the Democrat, and he speaks affectionately of a man he first met nearly 40 years ago and with whom he served for 20 years in the Senate. Yet he’s still hunting for a better option.
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 08:30
I think you know… No surprise here:  A Popular Information analysis of @RobertKennedyJr’s first FEC filing reveals the lion’s share of Kennedy’s biggest donors have PREVIOUSLY DONATED ONLY TO REPUBLICANS Follow along for details.  Through 6/30, Kennedy’s campaign has collected the maximum, $6,600, from 96 individuals. 37 individuals have previously only donated to Republican candidates for federal office. Only 19 have a history of consistently supporting Dem candidates Mark Dickson, a Californian who amassed a fortune in the aerospace industry, has donated more than 450K to federal candidates since 2015 The total includes $400,000 to Trump Victory Dickson has NEVER supported a Democrat running for office Until he maxed out to Kennedy   Keith Sheldon, a retired car dealership executive from Argyle, Texas, has consistently backed Trump, maxing out in 2016 and 2020. He also donated $2.9K to Herschel Walker. And thousands to House GOP candidates. But nothing to Dems. Until he maxed out to Kennedy.  Kennedy has dozens of maxed out donors with similar giving histories. And a much smaller number with a history of donating to Dems.
Created
Tue, 18/07/2023 - 07:00
JV Last made an excellent point about the upcoming presidential election: The 2024 election has no modern precedent and this unprecedented difference (1) Is not properly appreciated, and (2) Explains why the race has been so stable. This thing is so obvious that you’re going to dismiss it out of hand. But I want you to work through it with me: No one living has seen an election in which two presidents have run against one another. And that changes everything. Let me explain. What is the fundamental hurdle that every presidential candidate has to overcome? When the voter looks at the candidate, she asks, Can he do the job? That’s it. That’s the big question. And the answer is binary: Voters have to imagine each candidate as the chief executive and decide either, Yes, this person is a plausible president, or No, this person is not up to the office. One of the (many) advantages an incumbent president has is that he has proven that he can do the job. This sword has two edges: An incumbent’s presidential record can be attacked. Some voters may like it. Some may not.