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Thoughts on CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook — Stephanie Kelton

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2023/02/thoughts-on-cbos-budget-and-eco…
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 10:50
None of us should put too much stock into any long range economic outlook. But CBO’s economic outlook impacts its (baseline) budget projections, which matter for policymaking in all kinds of ways.

By assuming a gloomier economy—no growth, higher unemployment, stickier inflation, and more aggressive rate hikes in the near term (among other things)—CBO is telling lawmakers that projected deficits over the period 2023-2032 will be $900 billion higher than previously forecast (back in May 2022). Part of that jump is due to higher (revised up $295B) projected debt service over that period.

Keep this in mind, because I’m going to write more about rate hikes and their budgetary impacts in my next post....
The LensQuick 
Thoughts on CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders

Will the Access Hollywood tape come back to haunt Trump?

https://digbysblog.net/2023/02/18/will-the-access-hollywood-tape-come-back-to-h…
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 10:30
Not if he can help it It is damning, no doubt about it. He is such a pig… In April, Donald Trump’s lawyers are set to defend him in civil court against allegations from writer E. Jean Carroll that he raped her in a department store in the mid-’90s. When they do, they really, really want to ensure that jurors are not allowed to hear the infamous Access Hollywood tape in which Trump brags about grabbing women “by the pussy” without their consent. Why? Because they know how bad it makes him sound! In court papers filed late Thursday, Trump attorneys Alina Habba and Michael Madaio argued that the 2005 tape, which emerged while Trump was running for president the first time, should be banned from the trial. (They want both the tape itself and any references to it blocked.) Calling the recording “irrelevant and highly prejudicial,” the attorneys claim, per the Associated Press, that it “might unjustly be used to suggest to jurors that Trump had a propensity for sexual assault and therefore must have raped Carroll.” Why might the tape give jurors that idea, you ask?

Meruluza en Salsa Verde (Hake with Green Sauce)

https://vintagerecipecards.com/2023/02/18/meruluza-en-salsa-verde-hake-with-gre…
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 10:27
4 servings You will need½ cup oil3 cloves garlic, chopped1 tablespoon minced parsley4 hake slices, each ⅓ lb., preferably cut from the center, scaledpowdered white pepperjuice of 1 lemon24 or 28 green asparagus tips, tinnedsalt Heat oil in a flat-bottomed earthenware casserole, then add garlic and minced parsley. Stir with skimmer and add some of […]

“Professional traveling nut salesmen”

https://digbysblog.net/2023/02/18/professional-traveling-nut-salesmen/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 09:00
The anti-vaxxers are on a tear My loathing for these madmen knows no bounds: It was a peaceful Sunday afternoon at the Conscious Life Expo, and in a large, windowless ballroom, Del Bigtree was red-faced and triumphant in front of a captivated crowd. “These people,” he told them, “need to go to prison!” There was a smattering of solemn applause. “For life!” someone in the audience cried out.  Bigtree is a TV producer turned big fish in the anti-vaccine world, and this talk was, more or less, part of his victory lap. In a lecture running nearly two hours, he accused government officials and pharmaceutical companies of fraud for promoting mRNA vaccine, and for downplaying the effectiveness of drugs like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin. (Neither drug is effective as a cure, treatment, or preventative for COVID; the FDA warns against using hydroxychloroquine for COVID due to possible heart rhythm problems, and ivermectin because it can lead to problems ranging from hypotension to death.

Just don’t call it a propaganda network

https://digbysblog.net/2023/02/18/just-dont-call-it-a-propaganda-network/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 07:30
I was hoping someone would do this: People keep saying, “well, duh, of course they were doing this.” I guess we all suspected they knew the truth and were lying and we certainly suspected they did much of what they did because their audience was pissed that they called Arizona. But these emails are far worse than just that. The top star of the network was worrying about the stock price and calling Trump a demonic figure in private. Others were trying to get reporters fired for telling the truth and following journalistic standards and validating people they personally believed were f-ing nuts. The chairman of the network was telling them not to report what they knew were the facts. I mean, even I didn’t think they were quite that openly corrupt among themselves. It’s a full-blown profit-making, propaganda institution and they know exactly what they are doing.

DeSantis’ culture war shot o’ the day

https://digbysblog.net/2023/02/18/desantis-culture-war-shot-o-the-day/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 06:00
Doesn’t he ever take a day off? It’s certainly fair to warn people about various substances being laced with fentanyl. But this approach never worked in the past and it won’t work now. I think politicians (who aren’t as dumb as Trump) know this but they do it thrill their voters with lurid imagery. And preaching abstinence, as this one seems to do, is just a waste of breath. He should be talking about Naloxone and those fentanyl test strips. But he’ll never do that because this isn’t really about helping people struggling with substance use disorders or making a deadly mistake. It’s just pandering to conservatives. As usual. As Gov.

War: truly the last resort for Australians?

https://johnmenadue.com/war-truly-the-last-resort-for-australians/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 04:56
If war is the last resort, why doesn’t our governance system enforce that condition? Will our War Powers be reformed in 2023? A Joint Standing Committee of the parliament is currently inquiring into our “international armed conflict decision making”. There have been over a hundred submissions, and one day of public hearings (on 9 December Continue reading »

The Liberal Party’s extraordinary intervention in the 2022 election inquiry

https://johnmenadue.com/liberal-party-intervention-in-2022-election-inquiry/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 04:54
The Liberal Party has made an extraordinary intervention into the parliamentary inquiry on the conduct of the 2022 Australian election. After every federal election the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) of the Australian Parliament holds an inquiry into the conduct of the election and matters arising. The work of JSCEM has been credited Continue reading »

Valuable or valued: implications for employment policy

https://johnmenadue.com/valuable-or-valued-implications-for-employment-policy/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 04:51
If the COVID-19 pandemic is teaching us anything it is the important contribution of doctors, nurses, pharmacists, allied health professionals, hospital workers and teachers. Health, people, and communities are precious. My research (2015-2020) considered the dichotomies of regarding employees as assets with utility (valuable) or as people with dignity (valued). The policy implications for employers Continue reading »

We must address the alarming rates of female veteran suicide

https://johnmenadue.com/we-must-address-the-alarming-rates-of-female-veteran-su…
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 04:50
This article discusses suicide. It was 10 years ago that then Chief of Army, Lieutenant General Morrison AO gave his famous speech in support of service women, (written mostly by Catherine McGregor AM). Around this time, there were five concurrent inquiries into Defence culture, including the prominent Broderick Report on the treatment of women. All of this led to Continue reading »

Contradictions within economic theory. All well known but still important and, I think, not taken as seriously as they should be. — Andrew Gelman

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2023/02/contradictions-within-economic-…
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 04:37

 Funny … and sad.

Sometimes it’s hard to talk about economists about this sort of thing because they get all defensive about it.
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Contradictions within economic theory. All well known but still important and, I think, not taken as seriously as they should be.
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

Two articles by Pepe Escobar about China and Iran

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2023/02/two-articles-by-pepe-escobar-ab…
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 04:22

Iran turns East (along with Russia), forsaking former ambitions with the West after being rejected. China is waiting with open arms to take advantage of Kissinger's nightmare scenario now become a reality.

However, this is not a military alliance (yet) but rather an economic benefit for all sides, including other countries in the region, not the least of which is India, which will receive Eurasian resources through the New Silk Road (BRI) that is being developed, although the West is trying to disrupt it.


The Vineyard of the Saker
Two articles by Pepe Escobar about China and Iran
Pepe Escobar

Recidivist Trumper

https://digbysblog.net/2023/02/18/recidivist-trumper/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 04:00
Just another Republican, doing what they do: A Republican consultant was sentenced Friday to 18 months in prison for his role in conspiring to illegally funnel contributions from a Russian national to former President Donald Trump‘s 2016 presidential campaign. Jesse R. Benton, 45, of The Woodlands, Texas, was convicted in November on a series of charges including conspiracy, contribution by a foreign national, and causing false records to be filed with the Federal Election Commission. It’s the second time Benton, who has advised numerous GOP lawmakers on campaign strategy, has been convicted of charges related to political contributions. According to court documents, Benton schemed with Roy Douglas, another political adviser, to pass contributions to Trump’s campaign from a Russian national who wanted to meet and take a picture with the candidate. At the time, Benton was a strategist for the Great America PAC, a super PAC that backed Trump in 2016. The Russian national allegedly wired $100,000 as part of an arrangement with Benton to attend a Trump campaign fundraiser.

Late to the party, Mr. Miliband?

https://digbysblog.net/2023/02/18/late-to-the-party-mr-miliband/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 02:31
Former UK foreign secretary’s deep thoughts David Miliband’s jumping off point is Russia’s war in Ukraine, but his Age of Impunity is deeper and more insidious. First, former UK foreign secretary Miliband in The New York Times: The war’s impact goes far beyond the region. It has driven up food and energy prices worldwide, contributing to the record 349 million people experiencing food insecurity and to famine-like conditions in East Africa. The conduct of the war has flouted the most basic international laws and conventions, posing a fundamental threat to the global order. As such, it offers a textbook example of the Age of Impunity. Impunity is the exercise of power without accountability, which becomes, in starkest form, the commission of crimes without punishment. In Ukraine this goes beyond the original invasion. It has included repeated violations of international humanitarian law, which is supposed to establish clear protections for civilians, aid workers and civilian infrastructure in conflict zones every day. The danger is that few people will ever face consequences for these crimes. It’s a start.

Putting out the flame of democracy

https://digbysblog.net/2023/02/18/putting-out-the-flame-of-democracy/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 01:00
Fox lies because viewers want lies Fox is infotainment for the WWE crowd. But it’s nothing new. It’s The Drunkard  without throwing peanuts. David Blaine’s fans know the magic show isn’t real. It’s not clear how many WWE and Fox fans know those entertainments aren’t real. Or how many Fox anchors do, for that matter. But Dominion lawsuit filings gave us a hint this week. The Drunkard  is a morality play. Like other morality plays, temptations of the flesh, of money, reveal character. We all have our failings and know it. We watch to boo and hiss at the cartoonish bad guys. But we cheer for their redemption, like Scrooge’s every Christmas, knowing it could be us. Something darker is afoot with Fox and Trumpism. WWE and morality plays don’t lead to violent insurrection. But as the Dominion lawsuit reveals, the lure of money was a big motive behind Fox’s lies. Michelle Goldberg recounts in The New York Times: As the Dominion filing lays out, there was panic at Fox News over viewer backlash to the network correctly calling Arizona for Joe Biden on election night.

Economics as religion

https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2023/02/18/economics-as-religion/
Created
Sun, 19/02/2023 - 00:49
Contrary to the tenets of orthodox economists, contemporary research suggests that, rather than seeking always to maximise our personal gain, humans still remain reasonably altruistic and selfless. Nor is it clear that the endless accumulation of wealth always makes us happier. And when we do make decisions, especially those to do with matters of principle, […]