Obviously, it would be very bad to get your hopes up. We’ve all learned our lesson over the past 8 years. But still, there is a bit of a case to be made that things could go very well on election day for Harris and the Democrats. I think it’s ok to fantasize a little bit about that, just for kicks. Here’s an article in Fortune about the possibility of a big win: In late 2020 and early 2021, this reporter wrote several stories focusing on the election predictions advanced by Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University. I was intrigued by the highly original methodology Miller deployed in calling the trends, and outcomes, first in the presidential race, then for the two Georgia senatorial contests, where the surprise twin victories gave Democrats control of the upper chamber. […] In all three 2020 contests, Miller beat virtually every pollster, and modeler parsing multiple voter surveys. He missed the size of Biden’s win in the electoral college by just 12 votes, tagging every state for the correct column save Georgia. For the two senate runoffs, Miller refined his approach to sorting data on the Peach State, and scored again.
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The NY Times poll is out! Oh my god! Now we know the truth! Take a look at the list below from 538 which shows all the national polling results since September 11th. You may notice that there’s only one that shows Trump ahead. That’s the NY Times/Sienna poll. Maybe it’s right and all these other polls are wrong. It could happen. But I would think that the media would show a tiny bit of skepticism about that since every single poll other than this one shows Harris leading. And yes, these are all within the margin of error. And maybe it’s better psychologically for Democratic voters to believe they are losing but there’s a fine line between feeling motivated feeling despondent. I just hope the Democrats are able to keep up the energy that we’ve been seeing since Harris took over the ticket. I should point out that the good news is the NY Times poll (with the Philly Inquirer) found Harris ahead in Pennsylvania by 4 points. (They didn’t poll Wisconsin and Michigan or didn’t reveal it, if they did.) That’s actually better than some of the other polls from the same period and who knows what it really means.
The blueprint was set at least 25,000 years ago.
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Now the Trump campaign is urging him to drop out because of this story on CNN: Mark Robinson, the controversial and socially conservative Republican nominee for governor of North Carolina, made a series of inflammatory comments on a pornography website’s message board more than a decade ago, in which he referred to himself as a “black NAZI!” and expressed support for reinstating slavery, a CNN KFile investigation found. Despite a recent history of anti-transgender rhetoric, Robinson said he enjoyed watching transgender pornography, a review of archived messages found in which he also referred to himself as a “perv.” The comments, which Robinson denies making, predate his entry into politics and current stint as North Carolina’s lieutenant governor. They were made under a username that CNN was able to identify as Robinson by matching a litany of biographical details and a shared email address between the two. Many of Robinson’s comments were gratuitously sexual and lewd in nature. They were made between 2008 and 2012 on “Nude Africa,” a pornographic website that includes a message board.
As a transgender person who grew up evangelical and is now an atheist, I feel...
Cameron Stewart recently attempted to vaunt the virtues, so to speak, of the AUKUS nuclear submarines via an article in The Australian newspaper. In part, it’s threaded together with tufts of intellectual fluff from Kim Beazley, his one-time offsider, Paul Dibb, Peter Dean from the United States Study Centre in Sydney, Mike Pezzullo formerly of Continue reading »
(If only the media would report it…) Media Matters with yet another of Trump’s insane comments: Major newspapers and newswires failed to report that at a September 17 campaign event in Michigan, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump proposed reducing food imports in response to a question about how he’d reduce food costs, claiming that “our farmers are being decimated.” Several economists explained the obvious point that reducing the supply of food by restricting imports would actively increase food prices. During the town hall, an audience member asked Trump how he would “bring down the cost of food and groceries.” After Trump rambled about unrelated energy prices and Federal Reserve interest rates, he responded: “We gotta work with our farmers. Our farmers are being decimated right now. They’re being absolutely, absolutely decimated. And you know, one of the reasons is we allow a lot of farm product into our country. We’re gonna have to be a little bit like other countries.
The worldwide sushi industry is under threat due to overfishing of plastic soy sauce fish stocks, with leading marine biologists predicting a collapse of the entire fishery within the next five years. “Ten years ago we used to see schools... Read More ›
A unique court case has begun in Nevada this week. At stake is the future of the Murdoch empire. The case, which began on 17 September local time, is scheduled to run (in secret) for two weeks, and sometime after that the Reno Nevada County Probate Commissioner will make what will probably be the biggest Continue reading »
Donald Trump inherited a strong economy from President Barack Obama and managed it poorly. Real GDP grew more slowly under Trump than it had under any president since World War II. He was the only president since then to preside over a fall in the number of workers with a job. In 2016, the United Continue reading »
Something absolutely stupefying is happening in Germany: its iconic auto company, VW, the darling of every Chancellor from Adolf Hitler to Olaf Scholz, appears to be in a death spiral. At the end of this story I’ll draw a link to the salutary lesson countries like Australia and New Zealand need to draw from the Continue reading »
Shortly after he became Treasurer, in July 2022, Jim Chalmers announced a review of the Reserve Bank – the first since the current monetary policy arrangements were instituted in the 1990s. A lot of the recommendations from the review were not controversial and could be described as “improved housekeeping”. As Chalmers recently told journalists, the Continue reading »
I’m guessing that anyone who reads Pearls and Irritations knows that Land Forces, Australia’s largest weapons expo, was held in Melbourne from 11 to 13 September in the face of strong opposition. Given the blanket coverage, it’s likely the great majority of those in the city also knew this was happening, as well as a Continue reading »
My book ActivityPub: Programming for the Social Web is on its way to the virtual printers tomorrow, which means it will be available for purchase from all your favourite e-book stores at various points during next week. I will be taking this opportunity to have an online reading and book-signing party. The event is on … Continue reading Book-Signing Party 30 Sep 2024
It’s getting hard to tell anymore Daniel Dale at CNN breaks down a few of Trump’s bizarre ramblings: Former President Donald Trump is littering his public remarks with fictional stories. This isn’t run-of-the-mill political spin, the kind of statistic-twisting and accomplishment-exaggerating that political candidates of all stripes engage in. Rather, the Republican presidential nominee is telling colorful lies that are completely untethered to reality. He talks about the “eating the dogs” thing of course. But there are more: Harris and the military draft At a rally in Las Vegas last week, Trump claimed his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, is talking about forcing Americans to serve in the military: “She’s already talking about bringing back the draft. She wants to bring back the draft, and draft your child, and put them in a war that should never have happened.” That’s absolute bunk. Harris is not talking at all about bringing back the draft.
Regeringen presenterade idag sin budget för år 2025. I de aviserade ‘satsningarna’ går nästan hälften till sänkta skatter för hushållen. Framför allt höginkomsttagare med månadsinkomster på över 60 000 kr får de största skattelättnaderna. Detta är minst sagt provokativt om man tänker på alla de umbäranden vanliga löntagare genomlidit de senaste åren med höga räntor, […]
Like David Lammy, the military recognises the threat of climate breakdown. But that hasn’t stopped the sector's vast emissions