Let’s state the obvious bits and get them out of the way:
- The rebels are basically Al-Qaeda;
- They are supported by Turkey, Israel and the US;
- The Syrian army barely fought during the initial attacks and it was very embarrassing;
- Aleppo fell in a couple days. It may take a couple years to take it back;
- The timing is intended to take advantage of Hezbollah’s being weakened and tied down by Israel.
Syria was losing the previous war until Hezbollah and Russia intervened. It may well lose this war if Hezbollah and/or Russia don’t send troops, but both of them have other enemies they need to worry about.
If Syria falls, Russia loses its Mediterranean naval and air bases and thus a great deal of its military reach. Hezbollah loses its main supply line to Iran.



