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We introduce new firm-level indices covering input costs, demand and final prices based on listed Australian firms' earnings calls going back to 2007. These indices are constructed using a powerful transformer-based large language model. We show the new indices track current economic conditions, consistent with a simple conceptual framework we use to explain why there is real-time information in firms' earnings calls. Focusing on firms' price-setting behaviour, the reduced-form associations we estimate appear to show that discussions around final prices have become more sensitive to import costs but less sensitive to labour costs in the period since 2021. This is after controlling for changes in the operating environment that are common to all firms, including global supply shocks. Firms' price-setting sentiment also appears more sensitive to rising input costs compared to falling costs, suggesting that prices could remain front-of-mind for company executives even as supply pressures ease.

Source - Patreon

Source - Patreon

Source - Patreon

He aced it:

The off year elections have been positive for the Dems: Looking ahead to 2024, Democrats concede some cause for concern — including President Joe Biden’s anemic approval rating and early polls forecasting a repeat race against former President Donald Trump in which Biden either ties or trails, due in part to a notable chunk of undecided voters and apprehension over Biden’s age and acuity, which he has repeatedly dismissed. But Democrats also say that based on 2023 so far, they see plenty of reason for optimism about their chances with voters. An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean — or the relative liberal or conservative history — of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.

From the earliest kingdoms to late last night, history has been the story not just of the rise of great powers but of their decline and fall. So, normally, there would be nothing particularly out of the ordinary about the aging America of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, a classic imperial power distinctly in decline and threatening to split into pieces. As it happens, though, there’s something all too new about the twenty-first-century decline and fall of that other great power of the Cold War era — you know, not the Soviet Union. After all, the present downhill slide of this country is happening on a planet that itself is distinctly in trouble in terms of what’s always passed for... Read more

Source: A Global Maui Moment appeared first on TomDispatch.com.

So Trump has a government funded office that nobody knows about and it’s piled up with his “boxes.” And the people who have worked there, paid for by the government, are part of his campaign, which is a no-no. Of course: Several Trump aides on the payroll of his Save America political action committee, his 2024 presidential campaign or both have worked at the post-presidential office since it opened two years ago, according to campaign finance records and people familiar with the office. Cheung did not respond to a follow-up email seeking details about the office and its operations, including whether aides on Trump’s political payroll who have worked there are also paid by the government or a private noncampaign entity. It is possible for one person to split time between a campaign and government work, according to election finance experts. For example, most executive branch employees — including political appointees — can participate in certain partisan political activities outside of work, so long as they don’t use government resources.

Tomorrow morning brings the 50th anniversary of the coup in Chile and the death of Salvador Allende [Le Monde has that photo], a coup which was, of course, followed by mass incarcerations, witch-hunts and murders and by the exile as political refugees of many Chileans of the left. (In today’s climate those exiles would have […]

So the wingnuts are having a field day because Biden responded to a question about what he was going to do next by saying that he planned to go to bed. Naturally this is being spun as a further sign of his decrepitude. It’s actually the opposite as even Fox News reports: Fox News White House correspondent Peter Doocy reported that President Joe Biden was “working through the night” despite constant attacks on his age. Doocy revealed the 80-year-old president’s work schedule during a trip to Vietnam on Sunday. During the live report, Doocy seemed annoyed by the presence of presidential envoy John Kerry in the moments before Biden was set to speak. “And so, we expect maybe some climate talk here in Hanoi,” Doocy said. “We expect a short statement off the top, just about how the G20 went in India and how his meetings went here with the Communist Party in Vietnam. And then, as many questions as he wants to take.” “He has been basically working all through the night, the equivalent of an all-nighter Eastern time,” he added. “So, he’s probably pretty tired, pretty jet-lagged.

At a political fundraiser in Utah on 10 August, U.S. President Joe Biden described China’s economy as a “ticking time bomb”, adding that “That’s not good because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things”. It’s not only an unusually undiplomatic comment, but an unfair one that borders on the ridiculous. It’s true that Continue reading »

It’s time for education ministers across the country to show leadership and protect our children from vested interests and pro-war propaganda. On 19 June, the Defence Department launched its Nuclear-Powered Submarine Propulsion Challenge, for years 7 – 12 students across the nation. The program seeks to engage the enthusiasm of young people for the complex Continue reading »

Last week the Office of Prime Minister and Cabinet released a brief press release about Mr. Albanese’s forthcoming trip to Washington from the 23rd to the 26th of October which will be his first such visit since becoming Prime Minister. The enthusiasm of the members of Albanese’s staff seems to have run away with them. Continue reading »

As we collectively hurtle toward the environmental abyss, it’s worth asking whether we have definitively passed the highwater mark of human development. If so, should baby boomers be wracked with guilt about their entirely underserved good fortune and failure to avert the imminent crisis? The answer to both questions is probably yes. In 1957, then Continue reading »

In orthodox theory, oligopolies are big, lean and efficient. Their size and efficiency should produce price cuts. Instead, in the real world, oligopolies undermine economic democracy. They price gouge. They outflank regulatory laws while regulatory cops sit on their hands. Can Andrew Leigh and Jim Chalmers limit the damage economic concentration imposes? As Jim Chalmers Continue reading »

On Good Morning Britain, Jemma Redgrave shared who she's filmed with in Series 14 and what she knows about the UNIT spinoff rumors.

A top UN official expressed concerns that Afghanistan has been excluded from global discussions on climate change, despite being among the top 10 countries worldwide facing climate-related issues. Afghanistan has been excluded from the UN’s global climate summit talks since the Taliban takeover in 2021. Roza Otunbayeva, head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), highlighted Continue reading »

The tech fight is about economic survival for Beijing, but just another ‘war’ of choice for US politicians and technocrats. It’s easy to predict which side has the greater will to prevail. A leading Chinese telecoms company released a new smartphone and no less than the White House’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was asked Continue reading »

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 10, 2023

by Tony Wikrent

 

Strategic Political Economy

The Green Great Game Is This Century’s Space Race 

[The Diplomat, via Naked Capitalism 9-3-2023]

The rivalry for access to raw materials to facilitate the energy transition will turn the “Green Great Game” into one of the defining geopolitical features of the 21st century.

This from Eric Loomis at LG&M struck me because I just love the fact that unions are finally getting some traction after all these years. It’s a wonderful development and I have high hopes that this new generation will be successful in reforming the workplace through collective action. However, they do need to keep their eyes on the prize: As a labor person who is not one of these lefty labor-intellectual types who think that the real goal of the labor movement or the left should be to “emancipate” ourselves from labor entirely, I am not of the utopian type frame of mind. I admit that my brain mostly works within the 20th century socialist framework much more so than the 21st century left-libertarian-individual freedom framework. So when I see odd collective bargaining demands from workers who are more of the individualistic mindset, it kind of breaks my brain. Workers can collectively bargain for whatever they want. But I am trying to imagine walking to negotiations and trying to work out the demands of these Philadelphia coffee shop workers. I am going to present here what the employers’ lawyer says, which you can dismiss if you would like.

And it’s not Tuberville Wisconsin just re-elected this person.