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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 10:00
Why did anyone ever think otherwise? Krugman on the dynamite economic news today: The U.S. economy is still growing fast, surpassing almost everyone’s expectations. Inflation is right at the Fed’s target. Let me explain why this is bad for President Biden. OK, actually, no. Biden couldn’t have asked for better numbers. Politics aside, these numbers help us make sense of the inflation that dogged America for a couple of years but plunged in 2023. Here’s a wonkish chart, comparing the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures deflator (hey, don’t blame me), with a measure of labor market slack — the difference between the unemployment rate and the Congressional Budget Office estimate of normal, or “noncyclical,” unemployment. As you can see, before Covid there was a weak and noisy but still real relationship between the two: more slack, lower inflation. Then inflation really took off. Many Biden critics, including some Democrats, blamed the big spending of Biden’s first year.
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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 08:30
It’s always worthwhile to circulate this map. Just so people can be reminded that our government is supposed to represent people not dirt. Dean “Who?” It’s been reported that Phillips is almost certainly flirting with No Labels. Unfortunately for him, they are very unlikely to choose some cipher. But he’s a rich guy and his consultants are making big bank exploiting him which is fine. But really — what an ass.
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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 07:00
Has anything in the world ever been more predictable than this? Former Attorney General Bill Barr is coming to the defense of No Labels and their longshot third party effort. In a Wednesday op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, Barr accused Democrat operatives of potentially breaking the law in response to a complaint filed by No Labels with the Department of Justice describing retaliatory tactics against members and efforts to keep them from making state ballots, an already complicated and costly effort for third parties. The No Labels complaint describes an alleged “conspiracy to use retaliation, fear, intimidation, and even threats of violence” to keep the group off of ballots. No Labels provided accounts of threats and phone calls from Democrat operatives as evidence of their claims. “Although I am a committed Republican and not part of No Labels’ effort, I believe the campaign to disenfranchise the group is profoundly wrong. Poll after poll shows American voters want a choice beyond Joe Biden and Donald Trump,” Barr wrote about the situation.
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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 06:22
Your Greatest Enjoyment

A few memories stand out for me:

Age 5 or so, on the beach, kneeling on a rocky granite outcropping. The tide is out, and the rock has many small basins still full of water. In one of them a few small fish, silver and a sort of reddish gold, swim in circles. I stare, fascinated.

A tiny room in the third story of an old house. The woman I’m in love with, a psychology major, is doing her her homework, sprawled on her bed. I’m tucked into an alcove, knees up against my chest, reading a book. We aren’t talking or touching, but I’m warm in a cold room, my eyes are soft, and both of us are perfectly aware of the other.

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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 05:47

Thank you for having me on. I’m a huge fan of your show. I appreciate the opportunity to steer all discussion toward mentions of my book.

Hmm, that first question was not specifically about my book, which makes me worried that this is going to be one of those things where we “have a conversation” instead of “constantly shill my book.”

Speaking of my book, which you weren’t, my publisher said I need to shoehorn references to it into this interview, even if it brings the discussion to a screeching halt. I’m on shaky ground with them because of what a nightmare I was to my editor. I took every cut personally and sent aggressive emails late into the night. If my book doesn’t sell a ton, I’m toast. As I lay out in my book, my back is slick with shame-sweat. After the interview, I’ll have to switch shirts.

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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 05:30
He’s openly threatening anyone who supports Haley — and no doubt any of his other enemies. Come crawling now or never crawl to me again. I doubt he rally means it. He won’t turn away money. But he does want to see who comes running. Why is he so desperate and angry at Haley? He’s ahead in all the polls, he won the first two contests, he’s certain to be the nominee. Could it possibly be that he just can’t stand a woman who refuses to succumb to his orders? In any case, this was the response: She said she’s raised a million dollars since her New Hampshire speech, mostly from small donors. She probably raised even more since Trump’s fatwa against her donors.
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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 04:59
The heat and extreme climate records of 2023 shocked scientists. So where are we heading? Given current trends, the world will zoom past 2°C of warming and the Paris climate goal of limiting warming to 1.5-2°C. This is the second article in a two-part series.  Read the first part here. Climate model scenarios similar to Continue reading »
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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 04:56
We believe that recent statements by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejecting the possibility of Palestinian sovereignty, effectively sets a path for Israel in which future conflict with Palestinians is inevitable. On 20 January 2024 he said: “In any future arrangement – settlement or no settlement – Israel needs security control over all territory west of Continue reading »
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Fri, 26/01/2024 - 04:55
For the last few Februaries the Director-General of the ASIO, Mr Mike Burgess, has delivered an “annual threat assessment” by way of a speech to as many worthies as he can gather before him. He’s no doubt got the 2024 edition well in the works and invitations to the event in the post. Potential invitees Continue reading »