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This week, the UK Chancellor releases the latest fiscal statement (aka ‘the budget’) and will also have a eye to the general election which must be held before January 28, 2025. One would expect the government would stall the announcement and delay the election for as long as is possible, given the current situation and…

I wanted to share Scott Rosenberg’s analysis of this NY Times Poll that has everyone melting down today: It’s A Close, Competitive Election – Yes, the NYT released a poll today that has Trump ahead. Some initial thoughts: Lots of other polls show the race even, competitive – Three national polls released this week (below) have the race even. 538’s Congressional Generic tracker is tied, 44%-44%. A new battleground state poll produced by top Democratic pollsters has Trump and Biden tied at 40%. Another battleground state poll that hasn’t been released yet that I was just briefed on has it 41%-39% Trump, essentially the same results. Senate polling is slightly better for us than for Republicans right now. The Times poll has Trump leading among likely voters by 4 points, 48%-44%. This is a gain of 6 points for Trump since the December Times poll. None of these other polls have found a GOP surge of this magnitude or even a GOP lead. So the NYT results are not confirmed in lots of other recent polling which finds the race close and competitive, which is where I think it is now.

Source - Patreon

Source - Patreon

It helped Trump with his ludicrous assertion that Hillary didn’t have “the strength and the stamina” to be president. Do you think this garbage happens by accident? As we slog through yet another week of media onslaught saying “Biden’s old, old, old so everybody’s going to vote for Trump!” I thought I’d remind people of 2016, when one of the ongoing narratives was that Hillary Clinton was frail and dying from some unrevealed illness. I wrote this for Salon back in 2016:  The right-wing smear machine is working at warp speed to convince the nation that Hillary Clinton has brain damage. That is not hyperbole or some kind of a joke. They are literally claiming that she is hiding a physical and mental disability that renders her unfit for office. And they are, as usual, being helped by members of the mainstream media who are simply unable to resist “reporting” such a juicy tale even knowing that it is absurd. And so it becomes part of the narrative, true or not, that will color the rest of the campaign and Clinton’s presidency should she win.

In the midst of Israel’s ongoing devastation of Gaza, one major piece of Middle Eastern news has yet to hit the headlines. In a face-off that, in a sense, has lasted since the pro-American Shah of Iran was overthrown by theocratic clerics in 1979, Iran finally seems to be besting the United States in a significant fashion across the region. It’s a story that needs to be told. “Hit Iran now. Hit them hard” was typical advice offered by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham after a drone flown by an Iran-aligned Iraqi Shiite militia killed three American servicemen in northern Jordan on January 28th. The well-heeled Iran War Lobby in Washington has, in fact, been stridently calling for nothing short of... Read more

Source: Is Tehran Winning the Middle East? appeared first on TomDispatch.com.

I thought this was excellent Mitch is leaving because his health is failing and he’s lost his grip on the caucus. Five years ago he was all in and did everything he could to maintain power by any means necessary. He’d do it again if he could. He just ran out of gas.

Opposition leader (as of writing), Peter Dutton, is tipped today to announce the first two sites chosen to host his future pie in the sky nuclear power plants, with Aston and Dunkley being the rumored picks. ”It’s not to say... Read More ›

Poll angst is a Democratic pastime but it’s a waste of time and energy If you are fretting about the NY Times poll (which polled 900 people) that everyone is fretting about, here’s a reminder of a time in the not too distant past when everyone was fretting about another NY TImes poll from Joan Walsh in 2022: It’s said to be wrong to kick a person when he or she is down. If Monday’s New York Times/Siena poll were a person, it’s been stomped so severely that a compassionate observer would step in to stop the fight. But even though the poll that launched a thousand headlines claiming the midterms are moving back toward Republicans, and that the so-called Dobbs effect—a shift to Democrats after the Supreme Court did away with a 50-year-old constitutional right to abortion—is subsiding, has been pretty thoroughly debunked by pollsters and progressive analysts, it still deserves attention (but no kicking here, folks).

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – March 3, 2024

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

Amitav Ghosh’s Reckoning With Opium.

Alexander Zaitchik, March 1, 2024 [The New Republic]

His new book, Smoke and Ashes, traces the ravages of British opium on India from the eighteenth century to the present.

I guess he thinks he can entice some of those RFK Jr voters over to his side. He’s also following this guy’s guidance: Shortly before Joseph Ladapo was sworn in as Florida’s surgeon general in 2022, the New Yorker ran a short column welcoming the vaccine-skeptic doctor to his new role, and highlighting his advocacy for the use of leeches in public health. It was satire of course, a teasing of the Harvard-educated physician for his unorthodox medical views, which include a steadfast belief that life-saving Covid shots are the work of the devil, and that opening a window is the preferred treatment for the inhalation of toxic fumes from gas stoves. But now, with an entirely preventable outbreak of measles spreading across Florida, medical experts are questioning if quackery really has become official health policy in the nation’s third most-populous state.

“When Australia looks out to the world, the first thing we see is the countries of ASEAN.” – Australian Foreign Minister, Penny Wong. Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s recent statement of endearment for Asean must be taken with a pinch of salt. In a recent interview with a group of South-East Asian journalists during the Asean-Australia Continue reading »

ASEAN has been around for so long media outlets rarely spell the full name – Association of Southeast Asian Nations. That sounds significant and grand. It’s not. A better title for the acronym would be Association of Supercilious Egoists and Nationalists. Even that snide put down wouldn’t do enough injustice to a ten-member group that Continue reading »

Modern Israel has existed for 860 months, yet the past 5 will define its culture, its values, and the very basis of its religious inspiration before the bar of history for generations to come. There is a scene in Thomas Keneally’s Schindler’s Ark which describes how a British Sterling bomber crashed on the factory near Continue reading »

The US seems to have decided it cannot tolerate China as a threat to its global hegemony. But how to attack or put pressure on China? Logistically and politically Taiwan is out of the question. But the brewing tension between South Korea and North Korea provides an opportunity, not unlike the Ukraine-Russia situation. In other Continue reading »

Reaction to the release of the Final Report of the Accord Review of Australia’s universities has been relatively positive. However, while some university administrators recorded their appreciation and perhaps their relief, there is little in it for academic staff. As campuses filled up again last week for the start of the academic year, the signs Continue reading »

The Federal Government last week launched a new influencer-led social media campaign to discourage vaping among young people, warning that social media is “awash” with pro-vaping content. Introduction by Croakey: Federal Health Minister Mark Butler said TikTok has more than 18 billion posts with the hashtag #vape and Instagram has more than 18,000 ‘vaping influencer’ profiles Continue reading »

The collapsing of the two categories, Judaism and Zionism to become synonymous seems to me to be a very dangerous, even foolish thing to do. Yet, to my amazement it seems many Jews are doing precisely that. It would be fair to say that such is representative of the deeply conservative Jewish establishment in Australia. Continue reading »

The relaunch of legislation to implement Article 23 of the Basic Law to prohibit national security offences, after a pause of more than 21 years, has sparked remarkably few controversies in the local community in Hong Kong. In the light of the political upheaval in 2019, and evidence of dangerous activities emerging from cases currently Continue reading »

That was Trump speaking earlier today. Here are a few more: Here’s Dr. John Gartner analyzing Trump’s speech at CPAC last weekend: Trump manifested a number of phonemic paraphasias. He was trying to say evangelist, for example, but haltingly said “evangelish.” He was trying to say “three years later,” but said, “three years, lady, lady, lady.” Trying to spit out the word “lately,” he sounded like a car with a bad battery struggling to turn over. When Trump can’t find a word his whole demeanor changes. It’s almost like someone pulled the metaphorical plug. Trump looks blank, stops in mid-sentence (or mid-word), his jaw goes a little slack, and when he starts to talk again, he slurs, speaks haltingly, and often looks confused. Trying to get the word out, he shifts to a non-word that is easier to pronounce. When people are losing their ability to use language they use non-words. They start with the stem of the real word, and then they improvise from there. In my family we call sandwiches “slamichs” because that’s what my stepson called them when he was three. It was cute then.

Playing the hand you are dealt Jonathan Last throws water on the magical thinking about skittish Democrats replacing Joe Biden on their presidential ticket. (Really? Are we still talking about this?) Scary New York Times polls? How about scarier polls? Virtually all the also-mentions poll worse than Biden against Trump: Harris, Newsome, Whitmer and Shapiro. Ten days ago already, Lawrence O’Donnell’s “the governing will not be televised” monologue refuted Ezra Klein’s speculation about Democrats replacing Biden. If that was not sufficient to dispel the notion that the DNC is going to rub a monkey’s paw and produce a younger presidential candidate, Last provides bullets on why it won’t (The Atlantic): Democrats may have a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but not since 2018. Unless the carnage abates in Gaza soon, there will exist the potential for protests in Chicago that (for those of a certain age) will evoke bad memories from 1968. Even the rowdies of The Big Tent Party will want to avoid that kind of bad press.