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Created
Thu, 26/10/2023 - 20:21
Clinically vulnerable people are among the many realities denied in the endless drive for “normality”. By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 16th October 2023 For some people, going to hospital may now be more dangerous than staying at home untreated. Many clinically vulnerable people fear, sometimes with good reason, that a visit to hospital […]
Created
Thu, 26/10/2023 - 11:30
We consider structural vector autoregressions subject to narrative restrictions, which are inequalities involving structural shocks in specific time periods (e.g. shock signs in given quarters). Narrative restrictions are used widely in the empirical literature. However, under these restrictions, there are no formal results on identification or the properties of frequentist approaches to inference, and existing Bayesian methods can be sensitive to prior choice. We provide formal results on identification, propose a computationally tractable robust Bayesian method that eliminates prior sensitivity, and show that it is asymptotically valid from a frequentist perspective. Using our method, we find that inferences about the output effects of US monetary policy obtained under restrictions related to the Volcker episode are sensitive to prior choice. Under a richer set of restrictions, there is robust evidence that output falls following a positive monetary policy shock.
Created
Thu, 26/10/2023 - 10:30
Just chaos and culture war. That’s about it. Philip Bump digs down a little to find out what really animates them. And it’s not surprising: One of the central refrains of Donald Trump’s campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination — a refrain focused, justifiably, on a general election rematch against President Biden — is that the economy was more robust during his tenure in the White House. Trump and his allies make this argument constantly, one that largely focuses on inflation and that almost necessarily includes an asterisk that excepts the months of the coronavirus pandemic. But any person asked to evaluate the central themes of this race would very quickly identify the economy as a central part of Republican support for the former president. As it is, it seems, until a competing priority is presented: the need to “preserve American culture and way of life.” Then, the reality emerges. On Wednesday, PRRI released the results of its annual American Values survey, a look at broad themes in American political and religious thought.
Created
Thu, 26/10/2023 - 09:00
Is how it will go on Boos … “Shut up! Shut up!” … “Next question” when Rep. Mike Johnson is asked about efforts to overturn 2020 presidential election results … pic.twitter.com/H1O0drK6SE — Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) October 25, 2023 As Stuart Stevens said, Johnson is Jim Jordan with a jacket. Congresswoman Virginia Fox screaming “shut up, shut up” says it all.
Created
Thu, 26/10/2023 - 07:30
He’s just been more quiet about it than the showboaters The Republicans finally found a Speaker: Mike Johnson, 51, has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2016, and is currently serving his fourth term in the House. He represents Louisiana’s fourth congressional district, which includes nearly 760,000 residents. Johnson won the seat with the largest margin of victory in his region in more than 50 years, according to a biography on his website. Of note: After earning both a bachelor’s degree and a law degree from Louisiana State University, Johnson spent nearly 20 years practicing constitutional law. Johnson then served in the Louisiana Legislature from February 2015 to January 2017. He and his wife, Kelly Johnson, have been married since 1999 and have four children. Where does he fit into the GOP landscape? Johnson was unanimously re-elected as as vice chair of the House Republican Conference for a second time last year. He also serves as a deputy whip for the 118th Congress, and currently sits on the House Judiciary Committee and on the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.