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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 18:00
Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd and Edward Manuel The economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war have brought the importance of sharp changes in commodity prices, such as oil, to centre stage. While many have focused on understanding the impact of these developments on the central projection for the macroeconomic outlook, this post investigates the balance of … Continue reading Fuelling the tail: inflation- and GDP-at-Risk with oil-supply shocks
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 12:00
Episode 13 of my – Podcast – Letter from The Cape – is now available. In this episode, we consider the concept of productivity and discover that the mainstream bias towards a narrow interpretation – where a productive worker is only one that generates profits for a private capitalist – prevents us from fully understanding…
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 12:00
The Simplest Thing You Need To Understand About Climate Change

The amount of warming is based primarily on how much CO2 there is in the atmosphere.

This is what is known as a STOCK. Think of it like the water in a sink.

The amount of climate change gases we are putting into the atmosphere is a FLOW. Think of it as the net amount of water going into the sink.

So, when you read an article talking about how much gas is being produced, if it says that amount is going down, what that means is that warming is still increasing.

If we want to reduce the amount of warming, we have to get to a negative amount of gasses going into the pool; into the stock. The flow needs to be negative, like turning off the water and pulling the plug.

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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 08:30
A Utah man was shot and killed during an FBI raid early Wednesday morning, the FBI confirmed to ABC News. The raid was in connection with an investigation into alleged threats against President Joe Biden and others, according to two officials briefed on the case. One of the officials told ABC News that the investigation began in April and the U.S. Secret Service was notified by the FBI in June. In addition to threatening posts, the official said, the man under investigation suggested online he was making plans to take physical action. The threats had been deemed “credible,” the official said. The FBI in Salt Lake City said the shooting occurred around 6:15 am. local time while special agents attempted to serve arrest and search warrants at a residence in Provo. “The FBI takes all shooting incidents involving our agents or task force members seriously,” the FBI said in a statement. “In accordance with FBI policy, the shooting incident is under review by the FBI’s Inspection Division.
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 07:00
Hugh Hewitt says that voters in Ohio yesterday were confused: Abortion was not on the ballot – not at all!  The measure was the only thing on the ballot and the measure was about the ballot measure process.  While it is true that a ballot measure concerning abortion is pending that is not what this election was about.  And so, voters were (mis)lead to vote about something that has much broader implications based on something very immediate.  And so, in pursuit of abortion rights in Ohio much mischief entirely unrelated to abortion will unquestionably ensue. They weren’t confused. They knew that the ballot measure was immediately about abortion but that the Republicans were trying to make it harder to amend the state constitution so they could continue their increasingly unpopular minority rule. Abortion is the issue that symbolizes what these throwbacks are trying to do generally: deprive Americans of their freedom and their rights in service of their base voters’ grievance and anger at democratic norms that force them to share power with people they don’t like.
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 05:00
Trump’s going to say whatever the hell he wants about his case(s): Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday vowed that he “will talk” about the criminal charges he faces over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and accused federal prosecutors of “taking away my First Amendment rights.” Last week, special counsel Jack Smith asked U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to impose a so-called protective order that would prevent Trump from disclosing evidence the government turns over to his lawyers as part of the discovery process. Trump’s own lawyers chose not to object to a protective order and instead requested that the judge put in place a version that is “less restrictive” than the one proposed by the government. Trump’s lawyers asked Chutkan to shield only “genuinely sensitive materials” in order to protect his rights. But Trump is fighting on multiple fronts as he tries to beat three indictments and win back the presidency. On Tuesday, when he chided prosecutors and President Joe Biden, Trump was battling in the political arena at a rally here.
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 04:59
The imposition of sanctions on Israel by the Australian government is a logical step now that Foreign Minister Penny Wong has finally bowed to the inevitable in calling Israel’s West Bank settlements ‘illegal’. As Wong told the federal party caucus yesterday, it was time to “strengthen the government’s objection to settlements by affirming that they Continue reading »
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 04:58
We need to return to respectful dialogue. We are facing a critical test of Australian democracy and the resilience of the peaceful infrastructure of the public sphere and civil society. There is more at stake in the current Voice debate than simply which side will prevail. What is at issue also is our capacity as Continue reading »
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 04:58
They rely significantly on feeds of material that’s not otherwise readily available. As they’re in the news business, they need something new to keep in the hunt. It’s a hazardous business. Those “in the know” are only too ready to provide snippets of information often slanted to show them in a light bright enough to Continue reading »
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 04:56
Madrid, 6 August 1973––fifty years ago. The son of one of Franco’s generals has summoned us, a gang of rowdy friends, to his absent father’s luxurious home. Lounging on gold brocade sofas, merrily we smoke dope and drink booze till we’re high as larks and tight as owls. At some befuddled point I pick up Continue reading »
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 04:55
The Ukrainian war could be headed for a dangerous stalement, and at least some of the blame lies with Moscow and its supporters. From the beginning there was too much emphasis by Moscow supporters on the NATO question. Nothing was going to change in Ukraine by harping on broken NATO promises. Moscow did talk about Continue reading »
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Thu, 10/08/2023 - 04:54
Over recent weeks Pearls and Irritations has published two pieces on Crimea. One by David Higginbottom reports his views of the situation in Crimea following a visit there, arguing that there is widespread acceptance of Russian rule. The second, by Jon Richardson, argues that Higginbottom is wrong, that any pro-Russian majority is a result of Continue reading »