Why Donald Trump was able to shatter the Democratic coalition — and what needs to be done to rebuild it.
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George Conway responded: Bill is right There are plenty of micro-explanations and micro-excuses for what happened in the presidential election of 2024. And on the margins, any number of them—indeed, almost certainly, a combination of them—made the difference. But their impact was only on the margins. Don’t get me wrong—small margins and the factors that move them do matter, a lot, in elections—particularly in America in the 21st century. They deserve careful analysis, but only to a point. For the bottom line is that these considerations are not what we must focus on first and foremost today. What deserves the lion’s share of our attention are the facts that a major political party could have even considered nominating Trump despite his manifest criminality, moral depravity, psychological derangement, and cognitive deficiencies and deterioration—and that nearly half the country would have voted for him no matter what he did or said and no matter whom he had run against. That was the ultimate problem in this election, and remains so. We suffer from a deep sickness in our national polity.
It seems so: The most chilling moment of the election night carnage came a little before 1 a.m. ET. It wasn’t yet confirmed that Donald Trump would win, but the writing was on the wall. Assessing the newly transformed MAGA-friendly political landscape, the pro-Trump lobbyist and political commentator David Urban said on CNN: “Democracy is a luxury when you can’t pay your bills.” Democracy as a luxury. Democracy in good times only. Democracy when it suits you. This mindset – a precursor to fascist regimes in other countries – is why it feels like a white-wash to ascribe Trump’s victory to economic issues. It feels like a safe, socially acceptable reason to cite for rejecting Kamala Harris and the Biden baggage she carried. It’s easy for political reporters and TV commentators to slip into gentle analysis of the election results by focusing on the economic factors (to the exclusion of misogyny, racism, and host of other drives of the electorate). But it doesn’t necessarily follow that Biden-era inflation and post-pandemic backlash means jettisoning democracy. That’s a choice.
The great problem with Trump, predictively, is that he’s fickle. He often doesn’t do what he says he’ll do. Even if he was sincere he’s easily handled by flatterers. The best model for Trump is an arrogant and touchy king who wants to be made to feel he’s amazing.
This means that court games matter even more than in a normal Presidency, and those who play them best have the most power and influence.
But even a good courtier can step wrong with Trump and be pushed out. The limelight has to stay on Trump himself. A courtier can have great power, but the credit and the media must flow to the top. The last thing any courtier wants is to have people saying publicly that they’re the power behind the throne.
Watch what they watch, hear what they hear Brian Beutler wrote an excellent piece about the Democratic Party and the working class that you should read in its entirety. I think his analysis of the dysfunctional relationship is spot on. But the piece is called “Democrats PLEASE Try To Fix This Problem — If they ignore the media environment in their 2024 post-mortems, it will be the first major error of the second Trump era” and this is why: There may be much for liberals to learn walking in the shoes of working class or rural midwesterners, but few Democratic officials would find the experience shocking. They know, at least on an intellectual level, all the ways working class life can be a slog. The talking points they write don’t misdescribe the struggle.
“The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.”
— Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
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The arc of the moral universe is feeling pretty stiff this morning.
The arc of the moral universe overslept.
The arc of the moral universe didn’t sleep at all.
The arc of the moral universe just walked into the kitchen but forgot what it was looking for. It mindlessly opens the refrigerator as if the answer might be sitting next to the milk. All the shelves are empty.
The arc of the moral universe says, Goddammit.
The arc of the moral universe is buffering.
The arc of the moral universe has passed the same Pizza Hut three times. It can’t read a map for shit.
The arc of the moral universe is rocking back and forth in the bathtub.
The arc of the moral universe is out of ideas.
The arc of the moral universe wants you to please wait. Your call is important to it.
The arc of the moral universe is being talked over by your worst uncle.
The arc of the moral universe called in sick today.
On the trail of an extinct mustelid in Maine.
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Norwegian author Karl Ove Knausgaard on the inspiration for his latest novel and his turn to sci-fi.
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Get ready for the deportation grift. It’s going to be epic: President-elect Donald Trump told NBC News on Thursday that one of his first priorities upon taking office in January would be to make the border “strong and powerful.” When questioned about his campaign promise of mass deportations, Trump said his administration would have “no choice” but to carry them out. Trump said he considers his sweeping victory over Vice President Kamala Harris a mandate “to bring common sense” to the country. “We obviously have to make the border strong and powerful and, and we have to — at the same time, we want people to come into our country,” he said. “And you know, I’m not somebody that says, ‘No, you can’t come in.’ We want people to come in.” As a candidate, Trump had repeatedly vowed to carry out the “largest deportation effort in American history.” Asked about the cost of his plan, he said, “It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not — really, we have no choice.
Your guide to what the hell just happened in the election and what’s ahead.
Trump’s stated positions on major international issues, e.g. climate change and the value and importance of multilateral institutions, both political and economic, and on particular issues such as Ukraine, the Middle East and relations with China, give grounds for plenty of concern when compared with Australian interests and policies. Australia is a small country in Continue reading »
On Tuesday the American people spoke with clarity and determination. They voted for jobs, secure borders and to be able to look to the future in an uncertain world with confidence and optimism. What we know from Trump 1.0 is that he his true to his word. We can then expect that Trump’s foreign policy Continue reading »
Just like in the US , the next Australian election will be decided by the cost of living. Both the US and Australian economies have performed quite well, in difficult circumstances. However, the lesson from the US election is that both Governments need to tell their story better. It seems likely that the core issues Continue reading »
For many years, American politicians have recited and acted in accordance with the “truism” that “no politician ever lost an election by being too pro-Israel.” In an opinion article entitled “Democrats Ignored Gaza and Brought Down Their Party” which was published by the New York Times on November 7, Peter Beinart makes the argument that Continue reading »
In Asian media this week: World must brace ‘for extreme chaos’. Plus: Beijing pivots towards military junta; Yoon now engulfed in political strife; Haggling intensifies to decide on Japan’s leader; Indonesia’s debate over joining BRICS; Anwar Ibrahim always one of the elite. Difficulties with trade, growth, defence, security, alliances and climate figure prominently in the Continue reading »
The need to restructure energy planning and regulation in Australia has been apparent for over a decade, since households and businesses began rapidly installing solar panels on their roofs, flipping the traditional one-way, large-scale supply of electricity into a two-way, consumer-led transition. There needs to be thorough expert consideration on how best to facilitate this Continue reading »
Jonathan Holmes, a respected journalist and former host of Media Watch, with an impressive career spanning over 40 years including work as an executive producer for programs like Four Corners, Foreign Correspondent, and 7.30 Report, has shared his perspective on the challenges facing Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC with Michael Lester. Reflecting on its over Continue reading »
Prabowo Subianto has got his diary right: First overseas handshake from the new President of Indonesia is for his bankers in Beijing, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. Trump can wait. A year ago Bank Indonesia reported the nation owes China more than US$27 billion and is already in a debt trap according to Continue reading »
It’s a time of major events: Donald Trump has again been elected President of the USA and its biggest foreign spy base Pine Gap features in the movie Twilight Time to be screened in Alice Springs on Saturday. For decades “the base” has been described as a prime nuclear target. Does that worry the town? Continue reading »
Vladimir Putin rarely uses English in his speeches. So if in his speech to the recent BRICS meeting in Kazan he insisted the reason for Russia’s 2022 attack on Ukraine was that he was duped (he pronounced it ‘dooped’) by Germany and France in the 2014-5 Minsk Accords then he probably meant it. The Accords Continue reading »