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I propose identifying structural vector autoregressions using 'shock-percentile' restrictions. These restrictions require the realisation of a structural shock in a selected episode to lie in the tail of the shock's historical distribution, representing the belief that a relatively large shock has occurred. I argue that shock-percentile restrictions are an attractive alternative to imposing numeric bounds on shock magnitudes, which are difficult to credibly elicit. Simulations demonstrate the potential for shock-percentile restrictions to provide identifying information. In two empirical applications, I exploit shock-percentile restrictions to disentangle the relationship between uncertainty and real activity, and to sharpen identification of the macroeconomic effects of US monetary policy.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – March 29, 2026 by Tony Wikrent Tell Your State To Pass This No-ICE-At-Our-Precincts Model Law. Now. Josh Marshall, March 27, 2026 [Talking Points Memo]  I found a piece of model legislation published on March 9th by the Brennan Center.     War Plans, Platforms And Projectiles — The longer-term meaning of the Iran war. […]

The weaknesses of social-scientific normativism are obvious. The basic assumptions refer to idealized action under pure maxims; no empirically substantive lawlike hypotheses can be derived from them. Either it is a question of analytic statements recast in deductive form or the conditions under which the hypotheses derived could be definitively falsified are excluded under ceteris […]

Compromised AI decisions, radical manifestos, and more from The Lever this week.

Claims that an Iran-backed group is carrying out attacks in European cities raise questions about why they’re not targeting countries directly involved in the US-Israeli war, and why they appear to communicate like Israelis. Strangely, suspects arrested in the attacks have been released on bail. A specter is haunting Europe – the specter of Ashab al-Yamin. Officially known as “Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI),” or the “Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right,” the group mysteriously appeared in early […]

The post Who’s behind the mysterious ‘Iran-backed terror cell’ haunting Europe? first appeared on The Grayzone.

The post Who’s behind the mysterious ‘Iran-backed terror cell’ haunting Europe? appeared first on The Grayzone.

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. I know you all want to keep talking about gay Klingons, but restrain yourselves!

. Public debt is normally nothing to fear, especially if it is financed within the country itself (but even foreign loans could benefit the economy if invested correctly). Some members of society hold bonds and earn interest on them, while others have to pay taxes that ultimately pay the interest on the debt. However, the […]

The world extends a hand to Cuba, Washington passes energy bills for your energy bills, meatpackers walk out, and Alaska tries to school the Trump administration.

I had an ultimately harmless encounter with ICE at a TSA checkpoint. It was a preview of a new, more sophisticated way to terrorize people.

The post ICE at Airports Trains Us to Accept Being Terrorized in Our Daily Lives appeared first on The Intercept.

The Karl Polanyi Institute of Political Economy at Concordia University has launched the Bibliographic Database of International Scholarship – a project dedicated to exploring Karl Polanyi’s preeminent intellectual legacy and current influence worldwide. This new resource acts as a hub for Polanyi-inspired research across disciplines, providing scientific monitoring of emerging Polanyian scholarship and a knowledge transfer tool for everyone interested in […]

How the ephemerality of the internet has warped our ability to know who we are.

In this week’s episode of the MintCast podcast hosted by MintPress director Mnar Adley, we are joined by Iranian political analyst Ali Alizadeh to talk about Trump’s miscalculation in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran which went from shock & awe to strategic failure. Twenty-seven days into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, what was expected to be a swift and decisive campaign is instead spiraling into a far more dangerous and unpredictable confrontation with massive econimic global fallout because of the closure of the Straight of Hormuz. Early assumptions that Iran’s leadership could be “decapitated” through targeted airstrikes—triggering internal collapse—have proven dramatically misplaced.

The post Trump’s Iran Gamble Is Spiraling Out of Control: From Shock & Awe to Strategic Failure appeared first on MintPress News.

 Openly declaring its intent to illegally occupy southern Lebanon, Israel finds itself in a costly ground battle with Hezbollah, from which there are indications Syria may soon be roped in. This is born from the understanding that in order to successfully weaken the Lebanese resistance, the Israeli military must penetrate the Bekaa Valley area and that's why Israel wants Syria’s military to invade Lebanon's border and attack Hezbollah, aiming to go after what is labelled critical infrastructure belonging to the Lebanese group. The Trump administration has directly put pressure on Syrian leader Ahmed al-Shara’a to do just that but growing resistance inside of Syria against Israel is pushing back.

The post Failing to Defeat Hezbollah, Israel & US Pressure Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa to Join War appeared first on MintPress News.

Short of a full-scale invasion, it looks like Trump will need to deal with the Iranian regime.

The post The Regime Survives, Trump Has to Deal, and Iranians Are the Biggest Losers appeared first on The Intercept.

I saw an article today by the American Conservatives, who tend to be more sensible than most conservatives. It posits that peace can’t be made with Iran till Trump gets tough with Israel, because it’s Israel who keeps escalating. This is true, but it avoids the pedo-elephant in the room. It is almost certain that […]

Test your knowledge of the power of the purse, defense contracts, and other issues that really matter.

The symbolic resolution could force Democrats to take a stand on the millions the increasingly toxic AIPAC spends on Democratic primaries.

The post DNC Resolution to Reject AIPAC Funding Puts Democratic Leaders in the Hot Seat appeared first on The Intercept.

Here, in all their glory, are my full notes: 1 LB ground beef. Sliced provolone and parm. No pickles – cornichons 6pm start 6:08 sauce is on. Burgers are formed Very skeptical on structural integrity of pizza burgers 6:15 pre-heating the electric grill 6:30 done That’s it. That’s literally it. I don’t have a grill,Continue reading 209. Pizza Burgers →