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Created
Fri, 27/02/2026 - 19:41
~by Sean Paul Kelley Couple of random notes this Friday morning, mostly economics related, some silver news and my personal reaction to portions of the discusssion in Ian’s “Is Virtue An Advantage Or Disadvantage For Societies?” post. First, econonomics. It looks more and more like we are heading into a 2008-style credit crisis/crunch. Don’t believe […]
Created
Fri, 27/02/2026 - 19:00
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February 27th, 2026next

February 27th, 2026: TORONTO IS STILL WET AND MY COMPL

Created
Fri, 27/02/2026 - 05:21
. A classic textbook example of the ‘Table 2 Fallacy’ in economics arises when estimating the return to education and misinterpreting regression coefficients. Suppose an economist wishes to estimate the causal effect of an additional year of schooling on earnings and estimates If the estimated coefficient is small and statistically insignificant, the economist might conclude […]
Created
Thu, 26/02/2026 - 01:30
We have a very odd spectacle right now: Anthropic’s CEO has said the US government cannot use Anthropic products if they will not guarantee that they won’t be used for autonomous military robots (firing without human intervention) or mass surveillance. The Pentagon has responded by threatening to eminent domain Claude, and make their own version. […]
Created
Wed, 25/02/2026 - 20:33

Carlo Masala’s short work of speculative fiction, If Russia Wins: A Scenario, was a bestseller when it was published in Germany last year. Masala is a professor of international relations at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, having previously served as deputy director of research at the NATO Defence College in Rome. Since 2022, he has […]

Created
Wed, 25/02/2026 - 19:00
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February 25th, 2026next

February 25th, 2026: Toronto has been wet for weeks now. It snows but then it melts a bit, or it rains.

Created
Wed, 25/02/2026 - 01:33
There’s an idea going around that virtues are anti-competitive. That being loyal, honorable, honest, generous, kind, etc… puts you at a disadvantage. It’s one of those half true statements. It’s true if your society is shit, but in a decent society it can be disadvantage, and if a society has predominantly virtueless people in charge, […]
Created
Wed, 25/02/2026 - 01:05
Perhaps the foremost financial crisis theorist of our time, Hyman Minsky, had as his central idea that crises are endogenous (system-internal) phenomena where stability creates instability and reduces safety margins for financial transactions with excessively high leverage effects. During the upswing phase of financial bubbles, safety margins shrink, and even the smallest setback can lead […]