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Elon Musk threatens to do to democracy what he did to Twitter. By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian, 2nd November 2024   This is what happens when successive US governments fail to tackle inequality. While millions of people live in poverty, a handful grow unimaginably rich. Wealth begets wealth, and they acquire political power […]

On April 5, 1933, US President Roosevelt made an executive decision to create the – Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) – which was a component of the suite of government programs referred to as the – New Deal – that defined the Federal government’s solution to the mass unemployment that arose during the early years of…

Our election forecast model is the most rigorous data-driven tool available. It aggregates and weighs polls, draws on fundamentals like the economy, validates forecasts based on complex statistical vetting, and generates thousands of Bayesian election simulations to explore the likelihood of every possible outcome.

Based on that, I can tell you with 100 percent confidence that there is a 50 percent chance of any goddamn thing happening.

There are many vibes-based hacks out there. But if you subscribe to my website, I will debunk this ridiculous wish-casting that tries to convince you anything is possible and give you a complex quantitative analysis of why anything is possible.

I’m begging you, innumerate rubes, to take a single class on statistics and probability. A 50/50 forecast really means no outcome should surprise you. That’s also what a 60/40 forecast means. And also what a 75/25 forecast means. My models can really only tell you who will win when it is so overwhelmingly obvious that you don’t need a model.

Source - Patreon

Source - Patreon

Source - Patreon

When the Anti-Defamation League’s (ADL) annual Antisemitism Audit was released in April, its claim of...

Australian human rights lawyer Chris Sidoti has been noted for his statements about Israel and Gaza. Australian whistleblower seeks support. Over the weekend the Israeli army has continued its bombardment in North Gaza, blocked school children in Hebron and killed more children ( and families) is airstrikes. Al Jazeera continues to track IDF social media Continue reading »

Get a load of this: Trump’s just blurting out whatever comes into his head: Former President Donald J. Trump told supporters on Sunday that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House at the end of his term during an end-of-campaign rally where he vented angrily about a spate of new public polls showing him losing ground to Vice President Kamala Harris and joked about reporters being shot at. The former president also described Democrats as a “demonic” party at the rally, at an airport in Lititz, Pa., his first of three swing-state stops planned for his second to last day on the campaign trail. Mr. Trump’s voice was audibly hoarse and his speech sluggish as he made unfounded claims about election interference. He praised himself for ditching his prepared remarks, saying it meant the “truth” could come out. “We had the best border, the safest border,” Mr. Trump said of his time in the White House. He said that the economy had been in good shape, before mentioning the chart he had been pointing to featuring immigration statistics when he was shot at during a rally in Butler, Pa., in July.

Some of you who aren’t on social media may not have heard about this since it’s getting zero coverage in the mainstream media. I suspect this is what the rumor everyone was talking about week or so ago was all about. In another time, it would be an earthquake but in this election I think they’ve decided that it’s just too much. The Daily Beast reports: Jeffrey Epstein described himself as Donald Trump’s “closest friend” and claimed intimate knowledge of his proclivity for sex, including cuckolding his best friends, according to recordings obtained exclusively by the Daily Beast. The convicted pedophile even boasted of his closeness to Trump and his now-wife Melania by claiming, “the first time he slept with her was on my plane,” which was dubbed the Lolita Express. Epstein spoke at length about Trump with the author Michael Wolff in August 2017, two years before being found dead in his jail cell. Wolff was researching his bombshell bestseller Fire and Fury at the time.

Donald Trump’s favorite conspiracy theorist, Robert Kennedy JR, has promised to make tin foil hats mandatory for all Americans, should Trump win the Presidency. ”We can’t have good honest Americans walking around with their thoughts unprotected,” said Robert Kennedy Jr.... Read More ›

Considering what Obama, Biden, Walz and others have meant when they say that America might not survive another four years of Trump. “I think you have to look at what the definition of ‘survive’ is. You can put me on a breathing tube tonight, but it wouldn’t be surviving like I’m surviving now.  That’s the best way of putting the threat that I’ve heard from anyone. We might survive but we’ll never be the same. Clinton gave a wide ranging interview to CNN and it’s quite good: Over nearly three weeks straight of 10-hour days – which means he’s had a much more active schedule than Harris, Trump, Tim Walz, JD Vance, Joe Biden or Barack Obama – Clinton is adamant in his speeches about his unique perspective as the only person on the planet who’s done the job and personally knows both candidates on the ballot Tuesday. “You did pretty well when I was president, and I think I’m entitled to my opinion about who would be better,” he often says, his soft Southern accent now with a permanent rasp.