If you watch CNN you’ll no doubt be hearing a lot about their new poll from the most annoying data analyst on television, David Chalian. It shows Trump beating Biden 49-42 and this will almost surely end up being the narrative going into the next week. Don’t listen. It’s an outlier: There is also a new CNN poll today showing Trump with a 49-43 national lead. Given that dozens of other national polls have shown the race within the margin of error and many have shown Biden gaining or with leads THIS CNN POLL IS AN OUTLIER and should be treated that way by CNN and other commentators. Any attempt to use the CNN to guide one’s understanding of the election given that dozens of other polls are showing a completely different race (tied) would be journalistic and/or analytical malpractice. A few months ago the Washington Post published a poll that they considered an outlier, and acknowledged it in their article about the poll, pointing out that their data was different from many other recent polls. CNN and other commentators should do the same with this poll. This race is inexplicably tight to be sure and Trump may well be marginally ahead. But this is ridiculous.
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Adam Serwer on the immunity argument: Trump’s legal argument is a path to dictatorship. That is not an exaggeration: His legal theory is that presidents are entitled to absolute immunity for official acts. Under this theory, a sitting president could violate the law with impunity, whether that is serving unlimited terms or assassinating any potential political opponents, unless the Senate impeaches and convicts the president. Yet a legislature would be strongly disinclined to impeach, much less convict, a president who could murder all of them with total immunity because he did so as an official act. The same scenario applies to the Supreme Court, which would probably not rule against a chief executive who could assassinate them and get away with it. The conservative justices have, over the years, seen harbingers of tyranny in union organizing, environmental regulations, civil-rights laws, and universal-health-care plans. When confronted with a legal theory that establishes actual tyranny, they were simply intrigued.
On 27 February, we wrote to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) expressing concern that Australia had failed to fulfil its obligation under the Genocide Convention (1948) to prevent any action that further risks the survival of the Palestinian people. That failure continues. We copied our letter to Judge Hilary Charlesworth at the ICJ. We Continue reading »
China’s economic policymaking over the past few decades is a fascinating example of adaptive planning and strategic foresight. From pivoting away from reliance on globalisation to emphasising domestic infrastructure and poverty alleviation, tilting towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and now focusing on “high-quality development” (simultaneously upscaling advanced manufacturing while deflating the property bubble), Continue reading »
In that newspaper of record of extraordinary bias – The Australian – there is much preaching about the sanctity of the market mechanism and the absolute folly of the government’s plan to subsidise investment in new industries. Such sharp economic brains have not, however, cared to admonish nor demand we terminate the massive subsidies given Continue reading »
Are you well-armed, fired up, pitchfork to hand? The quarry is elusive, his background suspect but we know his name – DV. Are we getting closer? Every case is searingly awful but overall there have apparently been changes, with Crikey using Australian Institute of Health and Welfare data to claim domestic homicide rates have fallen: Continue reading »
As Japan, New Zealand and the Philippines all move closer to US-led military architecture in the Asia-Pacific region, experts warn of the consequences. Political tensions are increasing in the Asian-Pacific after engagements in Washington produced statements pointing to New Zealand, Japan and the Philippines moving towards greater integration into US-led military blocs. Philippine President Ferdinand Continue reading »
In the end as at the beginning all that really matters is how we treat one another. This song of knowing is in our hearts and of our hearts. It whispers of better times. A daily life that can be calmer. Kinder, not something to worry about. Where the healing of memories is subtle but Continue reading »
China displays more understanding than Western powers on needs of less-developed nations. The growing importance of the Global South in the evolution of the international order has become clear over the past few decades. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top diplomat, recently acknowledged that “the era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended”. He warned Continue reading »
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 28 2024
by Tony Wikrent
Global power shift
Ukraine: A Guide For The Perplexed
Aurelien, via Naked Capitalism 04-27-2024]
Gaza / Palestine / Israel
Dive and delve into these very interesting and enlightening readings and recorded talks on various topics in Economic Sociology and Political Economy: > How the “Chicago School” of antitrust, with its narrow focus on consumer welfare, came to dominate antitrust law and ushered in a new era of monopoly capitalism — Ganesh Sitaraman reflects on […]
“Our job is to condemn Hamas, a terrorist organization that started this war, condemn in every form antisemitism, islamophobia, and other forms of bigotry. But we do have to pay attention to the unprecedented humanitarian disaster taking place in Gaza right now. Bernie Sanders: "Our job is to condemn Hamas, a terrorist organization that started this war, condemn in every form antisemitism, islamophobia, and other forms of bigotry. But we do have to pay attention to the unprecedented humanitarian disaster taking place in Gaza right now." pic.twitter.com/Rs27n5M2Tt — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 28, 2024 It shouldn’t be necessary to say this but it’s probably a good idea. Certain universal liberal values need to be emphasized when emotions get high.
Lol. He knows Jr is talking about his people here: Trump got a bunch of blowback from the faithful for putting down RFK Jr.’s anti vax routine yesterday. He’s worried. He didn’t like this either: Right: Did I mention that he’s worried?
Even “nerds” who won’t say it know it After the jokes at D.C.’s “nerd prom” last night, SNL’s Colin Jost got serious. I remember decency. Sort of. ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.
From insurance meltdowns and zombie pipelines to Pentagon grifts, here’s all the news from The Lever this week.
Robinson v. Stein offers a stark contrast Joe Biden’s sharpest barb at the White House Correspondents’ dinner was about him running against a six year old. The Guardian this morning uses a few more words for characterizing the “former factory worker” who rose from obscurity to serve as North Carolina’s Republican lieutenant governor. Mark Robinson is his party’s candidate for governor this November. It might be news that Republicans selected a Black candidate to run against state Attorney General Josh Stein. But if Donald Trump is a six year-old, it’s less clear how one might describe Robinson: Born into poverty and working in a furniture factory while attending college, Robinson quit his job and dropped out of school to begin speaking at conservative events. (Robinson, if he wins, would be the first North Carolina governor without a college degree elected since 1937.) Robinson beat a host of competitors for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor in 2020, winning about a third of the primary vote. He faced the state representative Yvonne Holley, an African American Democrat from Raleigh.
In today's BCTV Daily Dispatch: WHCD/SNL's Colin Jost, Dead Boy Detectives, Lanterns, Smiling Friends, TWD, James Gunn/X-Men '97, and more!
A JOYFUL weekend-long celebration of sharing and learning from diversity across cultures has been hosted by STARTTS (NSW Service for the Treatment of Torture and Trauma Survivors) in Bellingen. This, the second Cultural Exchange Program (CEP) held in the Coffs Coast region, saw 24 women from refugee/migrant backgrounds (Cambodia, Nepal, Tibet, Sri Lanka, Peru, Samoa,...
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CELEBRATING her 100th birthday on Saturday 27 April 2024, Joyce Jeff will be surrounded by family for a party at her home in Mater Christi, Toormina. Amongst the guests will be her lifelong friend, fellow Mater Christi resident and sister-in-law Enid Lambeth, who celebrated her centenary two years ago. Advertise with News of The Area...
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